Republicans have had a tough stretch. They were defeated in elections in the fall and find themselves at risk of losing control of one or maybe both chambers of Congress later this year. Their standard-bearer, President Trump, has tumbled in the polls and finds himself underwater on his two signature issues, the economy and immigration. There has been unrest in a major American city, and blood shed by Trump’s federal agents. Republicans’ whispers have grown louder in recent weeks: Trump is distracted; he’s focused on the wrong things; the chaos is hurting us. And then a thunderclap from deep-red Texas: a state-Senate race in a district that Trump won by 17 points just over a year ago flipped by more than 30 points over the weekend and elected a Democrat for the first time since 1978.
Now, that is a bad sign for a party in a midterm year. Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick deemed it “a wake-up call,” and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, a possible presidential hopeful, acknowledged that “a swing of this magnitude is not something that can be dismissed.” And then, hours later, Trump took to social media with an urgent call to action.
“I have determined,” the president wrote, “that the fastest way to bring The Trump Kennedy Center to the highest level of Success, Beauty, and Grandeur” is to close it for about two years before a “Grand Reopening that will rival and surpass anything that has taken place with respect to such a Facility before.”
Trump has never been much for resets. But right now, despite the political peril his party faces, instead of recalibrating he is doubling down. Consider a few of the stories that have dominated the headlines and cable chyrons over the past month: Anger about the scenes of unrest and violence amid ICE deportation operations in Minnesota? Well, the Trump administration has telegraphed that it would like to carry out a crackdown on Haitians in Ohio next. Concern about brandishing military force after the U.S. removed the leader of Venezuela and then threatened Greenland? Trump has sent an “armada” of warships to the Persian Gulf to intimidate Iran. A sense that the president has lost focus on what got him elected as he takes on vanity projects such as the White House ballroom? Well, he’ll see you that and raise you both the Kennedy Center renovation and the construction of a giant arch that no one seems to want.
Trump has always trusted his gut, and his unorthodox political instincts led to one of the most unlikely victories in American politics in 2016 and then, eight years later, its most improbable comeback. He and his White House continue to preach confidence. But will he be proved wrong this time?
For many Republicans, what happened in Fort Worth and its suburbs was the loudest alarm yet. Republican Leigh Wambsganss lost to Democrat Taylor Rehmet despite significantly outspending him. Early analysis has suggested that Republicans have lost some of the gains they had made with Latino voters. Wins like this one are fueling Democratic dreams of stealing congressional seats held by Republicans in states such as Iowa, North Carolina, Maine, and, yes, Texas.
Trump tried to distance himself from the Lone Star State result, telling reporters on Sunday, “I’m not involved with that” (he’d endorsed Wambsganss on Truth Social and urged his supporters to vote for her) and “I’m not on the ballot” (maybe not by name, but MAGA infuses all elections these days). Never before has a president so thoroughly dominated the political landscape and national discourse. That is to Trump’s delight, but it potentially works less well for Republicans who are left to defend a series of unpopular decisions and policies, most notably one that was formerly a strength: the president’s immigration agenda.
Many voters liked his plan to fortify the southern border and deport violent criminals who were in the U.S. illegally. But, pushed by the powerful White House aide Stephen Millerto meet huge daily arrest quotas, the administration’s efforts expanded greatly. ICE’s budget was supercharged and officers began to target migrants who, in many cases, had lived in the country peacefully for years, sometimes even decades, and were valued employees, neighbors, and friends. Polls showed that Americans were souring on the effort even before ICE surged 3,000 officers into Minneapolis. What followed: a series of confrontations that left two Americans—Renee Good and Alex Pretti, both 37 years old—dead at the hands of federal agents. The killings, particularly Pretti’s, seemed to play on loop on television and social media for a nation that was largely stuck indoors during a frigid, stormy January.
[Read: It wasn’t Democrats who persuaded Trump to change course in Minnesota]
An uproar followed, and even some Republicans (quietly) let it be known that changes were needed. Trump appeared as though he might back down. He held cordial calls with Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey (both under investigation by his Department of Justice), banished the incendiary Border Patrol chief Greg Bovino, and dispatched Tom Homan, his border czar, to the region in the unlikely role of agent of de-escalation. But within days, Trump began climbing down from his climb-down. He once again blasted the Democratic leaders on social media, suggested that he may add more officers, and blamed the state for fostering the atmosphere of violence. And then yesterday, while on a loyalist’s podcast, Trump declared, “Minnesota is a mess. There’s something in the water up there. I won the state three times but I got no credit for it … It’s a rigged state.” (He lost all three elections there.)
Many in the West Wing believe January 3 was a turning point for Trump’s second term, a moment when a presidency that limped to the finish of 2025 was given a jolt of life. That was the day U.S. forces seized the Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in a Caracas raid carried out with Hollywood-esque precision. Although questions remain about the operation’s aftermath—including the fate of Venezuela’s oil, the role of the United States in running the country, and whether it improved the lives of any Americans—the overwhelming military success astounded Trump. Even now, a month later, he brings it up unprompted to friends and lawmakers, and even during his call with Walz two weeks ago, much to the governor’s confusion.
Trump seems to have a taste for more. He backed down, at least for now, from his threats to invade Greenland after receiving strong pushback from NATO allies and some Republican leaders (including private calls from Senator Roger Wicker, the Republican chair of the Armed Services Committee, a person familiar with the conversations told me). But he has become fixated on Iran. Though diplomatic talks are scheduled this week, Trump has not ruled out a military operation against Tehran—and he has grown enamored with the idea of toppling the Iranian regime, thereby achieving something his predecessors could not, an aide and an outside adviser told me. Like others I spoke with, they did so on the condition of anonymity to candidly discuss the president’s thinking.
Few Trump supporters, however, cast their ballots for international adventurism and gunboat diplomacy. A number of Republicans and MAGA influencers have urged the president to shift his focus back home and on the elections ahead of their party, not the ones behind them. But the president has only ramped up that rhetoric, celebrating the FBI raid of a Fulton County, Georgia, elections office and calling for Republicans to “nationalize the voting.”
[Read: ‘It’s a five-alarm fire’]
In an attempt to keep the president on track, aides have rolled out events on mortgages and housing prices. A senior administration official told me that a prescription-drug announcement is slated for Thursday. White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles has urged the president to focus on the economy and last month promised that Trump, who rarely traveled to rally with his supporters last year, would make one trip a week to campaign for Republicans; Trump dutifully held events in Michigan and Iowa. And he didn’t mock the concept of an affordability crisis every time he talked about it.
The White House spokesperson Kush Desai defended the president’s approach, telling me in a statement that he “can walk and chew gum at the same time, and that’s especially true of policy priorities such as immigration and crime that also yield meaningful economic benefits.”
But Trump’s goals remain loftier, and centered on making a permanent imprint on the nation’s capital. His original idea for a White House ballroom abruptly escalated to the complete demolition of the East Wing. His construction spree now seems set to include a triumphal arch, as a gateway to Washington from Arlington National Cemetery. The president suggested that it should be 250 feet tall, which would dwarf the nearby Lincoln Memorial and dramatically alter the city’s low-rise skyline.
Then there’s the Kennedy Center. The performing-arts center, on the banks of the Potomac River, is a grand American stage and home to the National Symphony Orchestra. It’s also the official memorial to a slain president, named by an act of Congress in 1964 to honor John F. Kennedy, who had been assassinated in Dallas just a few months earlier. It was meant to carry the spirit of a young president who, along with his wife, valued the arts and believed they could inspire a nation.
Yet Trump was jealous. He has long wanted to be embraced by the nation’s cultural elite and biggest stars and has been incensed when he was belittled (or ignored) by them, even after achieving the highest office in the land. He took control of the center’s board last year and then, to the outrage of many, added his own name to the memorial. That caused a number of the acts still on the center’s schedule to withdraw, leaving it with little programming (or maybe no programming at all). Trump abruptly announced on Sunday evening that the Kennedy Center would, as of July, close for approximately two years for renovations, even though it had just gone through a $250 million expansion in 2019. Some fear that the revered building will meet the same fate as the East Wing; Trump told reporters yesterday that the center would not be razed, but then again, that’s what he originally said about the future ballroom site.
Before the center closed, it hosted the premiere of the $40 million documentary Melania, about the first lady. Trump donned a black tie for the event. This week, he also has meetings slated with the leaders of Colombia and Honduras. Not on his schedule? A trip out into the nation he leads.
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