President Donald Trump’s “obsession” with his election loss five years ago in Georgia could cost Republicans a chance to win back a Senate seat in the state, according to a new analysis.
The FBI seized ballots and other records this week from an election hub in Fulton County, where Trump was indicted for attempting to overturn his 2020 loss, and chief data analyst Harry Enten said on “CNN News Central” that his ongoing election fraud claims did not resonate with most voters.
“Trump’s obsession, obsession with an election that was over five years ago that he lost and then he won in 2024, he just can’t let it go,” Enten said. “But the American people do not believe Donald Trump on this one. How did [Joe] Biden win in 2020? Fair and square or voter fraud? Fair and square, of course, is the key, correct answer here. No real proof of voter fraud.”
Polls in 2020 found 60 percent of Americans believed Biden had won fair and square, compared to 32 percent who believed there was voter fraud involved, but in 2024 that split remained relatively unchanged at 62 percent to 36 percent, although Republicans were far more receptive to Trump’s claims.
“I want you to break it down by 2024 primary choice, okay, 90 percent of those who backed Donald Trump in that primary believe that Biden’s win was illegitimate,” Enten said. “It actually supercharged, it supercharged Donald Trump’s ability to win the Republican nomination in 2024. But if you look at the others, those who are backing other candidates, it was just 47 percent. Right now, of course, the majority of Republicans voted for Donald Trump, and what you see is 69 percent of Republicans, in fact, believe that Biden’s win was illegitimate. But there is this break within the Republican base. It is something that in fact unites Democrats, not something that unites Republicans.”
Trump’s election fraud claims don’t appear to be a winning issue with Georgia voters, Enten said.
“This is not a winner for Republicans,” he said. “It’s not a winner, and you go to Georgia, you know, you go to the last midterm election, right, 2022, Georgia voters say Biden’s win was legit or illegitimate, 58 percent. Again, you’re getting that three in five, right, who say that the win was legitimate. Democrats are begging, begging for the 2026 election to be about the legitimacy of the 2020 election.”
“This is a surprising number, chance to win the 2026 Georgia Senate race, [Sen.] Jon Ossoff, the Democrats [have an] 80 percent chance, according to the prediction markets, Republicans just a 20 percent chance. Every moment that Donald Trump talks about the 2020 election is a chance for Jon Ossoff to boost his probability of winning. He would absolutely love for Donald Trump to continue on with his diatribe, his obsession, one that the American people do not believe and Georgia voters don’t believe, either.”
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