Arctic temperatures plunging as far as Florida this weekend have set the stage for a rare meteorological phenomenon in the South: snow on the beach. On some stretches of the East Coast, forecasters warned, the conditions could escalate into full-blown blizzard conditions.
Unlike the sprawling system that paralyzed a huge stretch of the country from the southern Rockies to New England last week, this storm is a more focused threat to the East Coast. It carries the potential to lash the Northeast with strong winds and additional snow, but its primary target appears to be the coastal areas of the Carolinas, where significant and possibly historic amounts of snow could fall.
How severe the storm will be will depend entirely on where the storm’s center forms on Saturday and the precise track it takes as it churns north through Sunday.
“This storm is one that people in locations like the Cape in North Carolina haven’t seen in quite a while,” Rachel Zouzias, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Wilmington, N.C., said on Thursday. She noted there were early indications that the system could mirror one in 1989 that dumped more than a foot of snow on the region and set records that still have not been broken.
Forecasters said the setup is unusual for the South, where the messy “wintry mix” of sleet and rain is far more common than pure snow.
The Forecast Map
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New York and New England: For New York City, snow remains uncertain. The highest probability for accumulation sits east and northeast of the city across Long Island, Connecticut and Cape Cod and toward Boston. Regardless of the snow totals, blustery winds will be universal.
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The Deep South: The heaviest snowfall is expected between Charleston, S.C., and Virginia Beach. Inland cities, including Atlanta, Charlotte, Raleigh, and Roanoke, Va., are all in the path, with Charlotte likely to see the highest totals among them.
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Florida: Even Tampa Bay is on alert for flurries.
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Blizzard conditions: North Carolina’s Outer Banks and Virginia’s coastline — where people may be more familiar with tropical storms than with blizzards — could experience whiteout conditions, with dry, light snow and wind gusts potentially reaching hurricane force.
A Year’s Snow in a Day
Winter forecasting is notoriously fickle. Last week’s challenge was distinguishing between ice and snow; this week, the question is simply “how much?”
Alex Lamers, a meteorologist with the Weather Prediction Center, said on Thursday that forecasters had “increasing confidence” that parts of North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia could receive some of their highest snow totals in years.
Some places could measure totals on Saturday that are more than they receive in an entire year, he said. “This amount of snow from one storm is quite unusual for them,” he said.
The nature of the snow itself will complicate the weekend. While the South is used to wet snow — the heavy, sticky kind that’s perfect for snowballs — this storm is expected to produce dry snow.
“It will be unusually cold at the height of the storm,” Mr. Lamers said, and by Sunday morning, most of the region could see wind chills below zero.
As the storm moves north through Sunday and into Monday, it is not expected to bring such significant snowfall with it. The forecasts for totals farther north are less certain, though there is more confidence that areas east of Boston could also see around a foot. In New York City, forecasters said, there was a possibility of up to two inches, but also a chance of no snow at all.
Beyond the Snow: Erosion and Extreme Cold
For the Outer Banks, the threat isn’t just what falls from the sky, but what rises from the sea. The area is still recovering from several hurricanes that brushed the region last summer and the erosion they caused.
“With these strong northeasterly winds, we are expecting potential for moderate to locally significant coastal impacts,” said Casey Dail, a forecaster at the Weather Service in Newport, N.C.
Once the storm moves north, the cold will continue to be a danger in the Carolinas. In Charleston, S.C., meteorologist Carl Barnes emphasized that the region was facing temperatures it “does not normally see.”
In the mountains of North Carolina, wind chills are forecast to drop into the negative 20s. In many parts of the South, temperatures on Sunday will fail to climb above freezing, ensuring that whatever snow falls is likely to remain on the ground well into next week.
Judson Jones is a meteorologist and reporter for The Times who forecasts and covers extreme weather.
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