CNN’s Harry Enten predicted a brutal critical reception for Melania Trump’s documentary when it’s released this week.
“Melania” premiers Friday and so far advance ticket sales have been in single digits for many theaters for the film that Amazon MGM studios paid $40 million to produce and spent $35 million marketing, but the chief data analyst told “CNN News Central” that early indicators projected a flop.
“This giant investment, and this is getting a very wide release – not so hot to trot, right,” Enten said. “Documentary ticket sales, the first weekend, the top all time, ‘Fahrenheit 9/11,’ adjusted for inflation. We’re talking about $41 million. Melania’s forecast is not anywhere close to that –$1 million to upwards of $5 million. You don’t have to be a mathematical genius to know that this number, $41 million, is significantly higher than the $1 million to $5 million forecast despite this movie getting a lot of press and this documentary getting a lot of press.”
Enten then examined some of the pre-release indicators for the response by critics.
“If we look at the reviews, not particularly good,” he said. “So what’s the chance that Melania’s Rotten Tomatoes score is below 20 percent? Of course, you don’t want to be below 50 percent, you actually want to be above 60 percent for a ‘fresh’ score. The chance that it’s below 20 percent, ergo, the critics are not going to like it is 73 percent. The chance that it’s above 50 percent is way lower than that. So the bottom line is this at this point, the belief is part of the reason why the film is not going to do all that well is because there’s a belief that the film is not all that good.”
The $75 million that Amazon MGM spent on the film rights and advertising appear to make the documentary one of the five most expensive ever produced, Enten said, while the first lady herself was ranked in the bottom three of all time by historians.
“Historical critics don’t really like Melania Trump either,” Enten said. “I mean, just take a look: Historians, first lady rankings, the bottom three – dead last, Melania Trump. When you’re next to Jane Pierce and Margaret Taylor, those are not particularly good.”
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