Amidst nationwide protests and furor over the killing of two U.S. citizens by Border Patrol officers, the new First Lady documentary “Melania” from Amazon MGM is set to arrive in approximately 1,500 theaters this weekend with a full $35 million marketing campaign and a premiere at the recently renamed Trump-Kennedy Center.
But save for some theaters in Republican-heavy states, the film is unlikely to leave much of an impact at a slumping box office, with theatrical sources telling TheWrap that “Melania” is projected for an opening of around $3 million this weekend.
That would put it below the last right-wing documentary, the Daily Wire-produced Matt Walsh film “Am I Racist?,” which opened to $4.5 million from 1,517 locations in September 2024, finishing with a $12.3 million total that made it the highest-grossing doc that year. The highest projections are coming from NRG with an estimate of around $5 million, though audience interest polls from the company have 30% saying they are “definitely not” interested in watching the film, an unusually high count for any wide release.
Keep in mind that Daily Wire spent far less on that film than what Amazon has committed for “Melania,” which is reported to be $40 million for the rights to the film in a post-election bidding war plus the hefty (for a documentary) marketing budget. That campaign has included cable news and NFL playoff TV spots, digital marketing, commemorative tickets and popcorn buckets, and a marketing stunt on the Sphere in Las Vegas.
So with a start this low, it is very unlikely Amazon will recoup its costs even with post-theatrical revenue. But the acquisition of “Melania” was no regular film deal. Amazon’s winning bid reportedly came following a Mar-a-Lago dinner between the Trumps and Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos in the weeks following the 2024 presidential election, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Since Donald Trump’s return to the White House, CEOs across industries have met with the president in the hopes of currying a favorable relationship. After the Mar-a-Lago visit, Bezos attended Trump’s inauguration last year alongside the likes of Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg, Apple’s Tim Cook and Google’s Sundar Pichai. In recent months, as Warner Bros. has gone on the M&A market, Paramount Skydance chief David Ellison and Netflix’s Ted Sarandos have met with Trump hoping to gain his favor as the two companies vie to take ownership of the legacy studio.
In that context, “Melania” becomes completely divorced from the rest of Amazon MGM’s campaign this year to become a full-time theatrical player, though the studio is publicly expressing confidence in the film simply as a box office contender. In a statement to Rolling Stone included as part of a behind-the-scenes exposé for the doc, Amazon MGM said it purchased the “Melania” rights “for one reason and one reason only — because we think customers are going to love it.”
Jimmy Kimmel characterized Amazon’s investment differently on Wednesday night’s episode of “Jimmy Kimmel Live,” flatly calling it “a bribe.”
Even if it only draws the most hardcore of Trump supporters, “Melania” could still end up being the highest grossing documentary of the year save possibly for concert films like Billie Eilish’s upcoming “Hit Me Hard and Soft.” There almost certainly won’t be a theatrically released doc appealing to those who oppose Trump, considering that the theatrical market for political documentaries like the pre-pandemic hit “RBG” has completely evaporated, especially after the liberal-minded Participant Media shut down in spring 2024.
But a film that is trying to appeal to those who detest the one-percent class that Trump is a part of will likely top the charts: “Send Help,” the horror-thriller from “Evil Dead” director Sam Raimi starring Rachel McAdams as a beleaguered office employee who finds herself stranded on a deserted island with her sexist boss.
Mixing the “tables are turned” class satire seen in films like Ruben Ostlund’s “Triangle of Sadness” with Raimi’s signature vicious mayhem, “Send Help” has been very well received by critics, earning an early 94% Rotten Tomatoes score. Box office projections have the film earning a $17 million opening weekend.
That would be a solid result for Raimi’s first original film since “Drag Me to Hell,” which opened to $15.8 million in May 2009, or approximately $23.7 million after inflation adjustment. In a January slate that has been filled with the usual gory offerings like Paramount’s “Primate” and Sony’s “28 Years Later: The Bone Temple,” we are still yet to see a film from this genre exceptionally leg out.
“Drag Me to Hell,” with its morbidly humorous tone, legged out to a $42.1 million domestic run. A similar run for “Send Help” would put it among the top 10 highest grossing films for 20th Century Studios since the 2019 Disney merger and alongside the $43 million run of the summer 2023 horror title “The Boogeyman.”
Also opening wide is “Shelter,” an action film starring Jason Statham as a former assassin forced to kill his former organization to protect a girl who had been supplying him. The film is being released by Black Bear Pictures as part of its nascent entry into U.S. distribution and is projected for a $5 million opening weekend.
Finally, there’s “Iron Lung,” the directorial debut of popular YouTuber Mark “Markiplier” Fischbach. As with his online endeavors, Fischbach is a multi-hyphenate on this project, serving as writer, director, editor, executive producer and lead star. And thanks to his popularity, the film is projected for a $9-10 million opening weekend from approximately 2,000 locations.
That would be an extremely impressive result considering that “Iron Lung” was initially set for a limited self-distributed release before Fischbach turned to his fans, launching a grassroots fan campaign to call on theaters to bring the film to their screens. Thanks to that campaign, the film has not only secured a wide domestic release with no established distributor but will also self-distribute in five more overseas countries plus 16 more European markets via a deal with Piece of Magic Entertainment.
It is no guarantee that YouTube popularity will equate to theatrical interest. Dude Perfect, a family-friendly trick shot team with more than 61 million YouTube subscribers, made less than $400,000 from its recent theatrical release of its live “Hero Tour” in around 1,000 locations last year. But Markiplier fans have made their voices heard, and the result could be an opening weekend on par with some of this month’s studio films.
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