A year after Beyoncé finally took home a long-overdue award for album of the year, music’s royalty will gather Sunday night to find out what fresh justice or outrage might be served up during the 68th Grammy Awards.
Kendrick Lamar leads the field with nine nominations, followed by Lady Gaga and the producers Cirkut and Jack Antonoff, each of whom have seven, and Bad Bunny, Sabrina Carpenter, Leon Thomas and the recording engineer Serban Ghenea, each of whom has six. The telecast, set to air live on CBS from Crypto.com Arena in downtown Los Angeles, will be hosted by Trevor Noah (for what he says is the final time) and will feature performances by Carpenter, Thomas, Clipse, Pharrell Williams, Addison Rae, Alex Warren, Olivia Dean and others.
Here are my predictions for how the night will go down across 13 categories — along with the winners I’d pick if I were handing out the awards.
ALBUM OF THE YEAR
Bad Bunny, “Debí Tirar Más Fotos” Justin Bieber, “Swag” Sabrina Carpenter, “Man’s Best Friend” Clipse, “Let God Sort Em Out” Lady Gaga, “Mayhem” Kendrick Lamar, “GNX” Leon Thomas, “Mutt” Tyler, the Creator, “Chromakopia”
Most insiders agree that the Grammys’ top category amounts to a three-way race between Kendrick Lamar, Lady Gaga and Bad Bunny, none of whom has ever won album of the year. Lamar and Gaga both have been nominated four previous times, which means either could benefit from the kind of “It’s their turn” energy that helped push Beyoncé to victory with “Cowboy Carter” after four earlier losses; a win for Bad Bunny would mark the first time a Spanish-language LP took album of the year — an attractive prospect, perhaps, to voters longing to send a message to President Trump amid his aggressive actions with ICE. That said, the Recording Academy never goes too long without making a choice that baffles everybody, as when Jon Batiste beat Olivia Rodrigo and Taylor Swift in 2022.
Will win: Kendrick Lamar, “GNX” Should win: Bad Bunny, “Debí Tirar Más Fotos”
RECORD OF THE YEAR
Bad Bunny, “DTMF” Sabrina Carpenter, “Manchild” Doechii, “Anxiety” Billie Eilish, “Wildflower” Lady Gaga, “Abracadabra” Kendrick Lamar with SZA, “Luther” Chappell Roan, “The Subway” Rosé and Bruno Mars, “Apt.”
Among the nominees, Bruno Mars owns this category: If he and Rosé win with “Apt.” — the first song by a K-pop act to be nominated for record of the year — he’ll become the only artist with four record trophies to his name. (Right now he and Paul Simon each have three.) Yet with “Luther,” which prominently samples Luther Vandross and Cheryl Lynn’s rendition of Marvin Gaye and Tammi Terrell’s “If This World Were Mine,” Lamar and SZA have precisely the kind of intergenerational hit that Grammy voters love. Lamar also has some momentum after taking home record and song last year with “Not Like Us.” Only three other acts have gone back to back in record of the year: Billie Eilish, U2 and the late Roberta Flack.
Will win: Kendrick Lamar with SZA, “Luther” Should win: Kendrick Lamar with SZA, “Luther”
SONG OF THE YEAR
“Abracadabra,” written by Cirkut, Lady Gaga and Andrew Watt (performed by Lady Gaga) “Anxiety,” written by Doechii (performed by Doechii) “Apt.,” written by Amy Allen, Brody Brown, Rogét Chayahed, Cirkut, Omer Fedi, Philip Lawrence, Bruno Mars, Rosé and Theron Thomas (performed by Rosé and Bruno Mars) “DTMF,” written by Bad Bunny, Marco Daniel Borrero, Scott Dittrich, Benjamin Falik, Hugo René Sención Sanabria, Tyler Spry and Roberto José Rosado Torres (performed by Bad Bunny) “Golden,” written by Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick (performed by Huntr/x) “Luther,” written by Jack Antonoff, Roshwita Larisha Bacha, Matthew Bernard, Ink, Scott Bridgeway, Sam Dew, Kendrick Lamar, Sounwave, SZA and Kamasi Washington (performed by Kendrick Lamar with SZA) “Manchild,” written by Amy Allen, Jack Antonoff and Sabrina Carpenter (performed by Sabrina Carpenter) “Wildflower,” written by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell (performed by Billie Eilish)
As usual at the Grammys, the nominees for song of the year overlap heavily with those for record of the year. (The record prize goes to performers and producers, while the song prize goes to songwriters). Here, in place of Chappell Roan’s “The Subway” is “Golden,” the chart-topping K-pop banger from Netflix’s animated “KPop Demon Hunters.” That addition would seem to bode well for “Golden,” which just won a Golden Globe and is nominated for original song at March’s Academy Awards. Don’t count out Eilish or Mars, though — both are two-time victors in a category nobody’s ever won three times.
Will win: “Golden” Should win: “Golden”
BEST NEW ARTIST
Olivia Dean Katseye The Marías Addison Rae Sombr Leon Thomas Alex Warren Lola Young
Only Leon Thomas has a second nod in one of the four big categories, which tells you something about the strength of his support among voters compared to that of his fellow nominees. Yet Thomas faces stiff competition from Olivia Dean, a young English soul singer in the mold of previous Grammy faves like Adele and Amy Winehouse; what’s more, she seemed to peak as a pop-cultural presence in December, right as academy members were filling out their ballots. Also worth considering: Nine of the last 10 winners in best new artist have been women.
Will win: Olivia Dean Should win: Addison Rae
BEST POP VOCAL ALBUM
Justin Bieber, “Swag” Sabrina Carpenter, “Man’s Best Friend” Miley Cyrus, “Something Beautiful” Lady Gaga, “Mayhem” Teddy Swims, “I’ve Tried Everything But Therapy (Part 2)”
In the last decade, only two LPs — Ed Sheeran’s “÷” and Ariana Grande’s “Sweetener” — have won this award without also being nominated for album of the year. So figure that Miley Cyrus and Teddy Swims are both long shots. Among the remaining nominees, “Mayhem” feels likeliest to win, though it’s worth pointing out that after Carpenter’s triumph last year with “Short n’ Sweet,” she could become the first artist to carry pop vocal album twice in a row.
Will win: Lady Gaga, “Mayhem” Should win: Lady Gaga, “Mayhem”
BEST RAP ALBUM
Clipse, “Let God Sort Em Out” GloRilla, “Glorious” JID, “God Does Like Ugly” Kendrick Lamar, “GNX” Tyler, the Creator, “Chromakopia”
Lamar has lost this award exactly one time — to Macklemore & Ryan Lewis (as though any serious Grammy watcher could forget). The fact that two of the other nominated LPs — Clipse’s “Let God Sort Em Out” and Tyler, the Creator’s “Chromakopia” — made it into album of the year suggests the race is probably as tight as it’s ever been. I still expect Kendrick to prevail.
Will win: Kendrick Lamar, “GNX” Should win: Kendrick Lamar, “GNX”
BEST CONTEMPORARY COUNTRY ALBUM
Kelsea Ballerini, “Patterns” Tyler Childers, “Snipe Hunter” Eric Church, “Evangeline vs. the Machine” Jelly Roll, “Beautifully Broken” Miranda Lambert, “Postcards from Texas”
After Beyoncé won the country album prize last year, the academy split that award into two: one Grammy for contemporary country album, another for traditional country album. (The academy insists its decision had nothing to do with complaints from Nashville types about Beyoncé’s win.) This is the 11th nomination for Eric Church, who’s never won a Grammy; his “Evangeline” album is the type of ambitious concept piece that voters often admire.
Will win: Eric Church, “Evangeline vs. the Machine” Should win: Eric Church, “Evangeline vs. the Machine”
BEST TRADITIONAL COUNTRY ALBUM
Charley Crockett, “Dollar a Day” Lukas Nelson, “American Romance” Willie Nelson, “Oh What a Beautiful World” Margo Price, “Hard Headed Woman” Zach Top, “Ain’t in It for My Health”
As Lukas Nelson pointed out to me a few weeks back, nods for him and his dad, Willie, mean the Nelson family has a 40% chance of winning this category. So too does producer Shooter Jennings, who oversaw the recording of both Lukas’ “American Romance” and Charley Crockett’s “Dollar a Day” at the historic Sunset Sound studio in Hollywood.
Will win: Willie Nelson, “Oh What a Beautiful World” Should win: Zach Top, “Ain’t in It for My Health”
BEST ROCK ALBUM
Deftones, “Private Music” Haim, “I Quit” Linkin Park, “From Zero” Turnstile, “Never Enough” Yungblud, “Idols”
Only one woman or female-fronted act (in this case Paramore) has won rock album in the last quarter-century — not a great sign for Haim and its underappreciated “I Quit.” To my mind, this category comes down to the reunited Linkin Park versus Yungblud, who likely caught many an older voter’s eye with a show-stopping performance of Black Sabbath’s “Changes” at Ozzy Osbourne’s 2025 farewell concert.
Will win: Yungblud, “Idols” Should win: Haim, “I Quit”
BEST ALTERNATIVE MUSIC ALBUM
Bon Iver, “Sable, Fable” The Cure, “Songs of a Lost World” Tyler, the Creator, “Don’t Tap the Glass” Wet Leg, “Moisturizer” Hayley Williams, “Ego Death at a Bachelorette Party”
The Cure has never won a Grammy, which is obviously dumb (and which probably means the band won’t now). Previous wins by Wet Leg and Bon Iver put the odds in their favor; Bon Iver’s talk of retiring after this album might give him a slight edge among voters eager to celebrate his entire career.
Will win: Bon Iver, “Sable, Fable” Should win: Bon Iver, “Sable, Fable”
BEST TRADITIONAL POP VOCAL ALBUM
Laila Biali, “Wintersongs” Jennifer Hudson, “The Gift of Love” Elton John & Brandi Carlile, “Who Believes in Angels?” Lady Gaga, “Harlequin” Laufey, “A Matter of Time” Barbra Streisand, “The Secret of Life: Partners, Volume 2”
Would you believe Barbra Streisand has somehow lost this award 13 times? Standing in her way this year are Lady Gaga, who’s previously won it twice for both of her duet albums with the late Tony Bennett, and Laufey, who’s built a very devoted following as a kind of jazz-adjacent Taylor Swift.
Will win: Lady Gaga, “Harlequin” Should win: Laufey, “A Matter of Time”
SONGWRITER OF THE YEAR
Amy Allen Edgar Barrera Jessie Jo Dillon Tobias Jesso Jr. Laura Veltz
Amy Allen and Tobias Jesso Jr. both have previously won this award, which was handed out for the first time in 2023. Each had enough success last year to justify another win, though Barrera’s work with Karol G, Shakira and Juanes might inspire voters to recognize another worthy talent.
Will win: Amy Allen Should win: Edgar Barrera
PRODUCER OF THE YEAR
Dan Auerbach Cirkut Dijon Blake Mills Sounwave
Despite his work on two album of the year nominees in “GNX” and “Man’s Best Friend,” Jack Antonoff was weirdly passed over for a nod in this category for the second year in a row. (Perhaps members of the committee that selects nominees for producer of the year are simply trying to spread the love after Antonoff’s three earlier wins.) Cirkut’s seven total nominations — for his work on “Mayhem” and “Apt.” — make him the favorite. But Dijon’s creativity was the most exciting to behold as heard on Bieber’s “Swag” and his own album “Baby.”
Will win: Cirkut Should win: Dijon
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