YANGON, Myanmar — The election that is expected to assure the continued grip of Myanmar’s military generals over the isolated Southeast Asian country wasn’t engineered in its fortified capital but in Beijing, according to diplomats, analysts and others monitoring developments.
Myanmar has been in a violent civil warsince 2021, when its military ousted a democratically elected government and drew armed opposition from pro-democracy groups and ethnic rebels.
Now Chinese officials have helped to arrange a political off-rampfor Myanmar’s generals that will allow them to retain power while adopting the veneer of civilian leadership. Their efforts culminated Sunday as the military oversaw a third and final round of voting in an election that has left no room for uncertainty.
Myanmar’s pro-democracy leaders — including Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi — have been imprisoned or exiled, their party banned from participating in the contest. Polls were held only in districts under the control of the military, which has been accused of human rights atrocities, including genocide, against the ethnic Rohingya people. Reports of people being coerced to vote have been widespread.
After the first two rounds of voting, the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) had already achieved a supermajority in parliament.
“People think USDP is who they can rely on for peace and stability,” San San Win, a party candidate in Yangon, said, smiling, from her office Friday. “Well, we are ready to serve.”
As voting opened Sunday, polling centers in Yangon, the country’s biggest city and commercial center, were eerily quiet. Video guides on how to vote blared to rows of empty plastic chairs. In locations thronged with voters in the 2020 election, large delegations of police, military intelligence and other security personnel outnumbered those there to cast their votes.
Among the trickle of people filing into a school in the center of the city was a 37-year-old sea captain, who, like other locals, spoke on the condition of anonymity ffear of retribution from the military. He said he had been told he wouldn’t be allowed to have his passport renewed or go out to sea if he didn’t vote.
“I have children to feed,” he said, gesturing at the 5-year-old twin boys clamoring for his attention. “I had to come.”
While the Trump administration focuses on restoring “American preeminence” in the Western Hemisphere, analysts say China is moving swiftly to consolidate control over its own neighborhood. In Myanmar, where U.S. influence and support for democracy is receding, Chinese authorities are tightening Beijing’s alliance with local military leaders.
Deng Xijun, China’s special envoy for Asian affairs, said in December that the elections “reflect the agreements” between Myanmar’s senior general Min Aung Hlaing and China’s leader Xi Jinping.
A delegation of three officials from the Chinese Embassy toured a polling center in Dagon township on Sunday morning. More than 1,000 people were registered to that polling center, election authorities said — but over 15 minutes, just two voters entered. Did the place appear quiet to the Chinese delegation?
They scanned the empty hall. “Well, there are still other polling stations,” one official responded. “We will see the others.”
To many in Myanmar, the election has felt little more than theater.
“Whether we vote or not, they will win because of their tricks,” said a 38-year-old musician, referring to the military. He didn’t vote, he said, and told his friends and family not to, either.
Still, there are others who hope the polls, even if unfair, can prompt some change.
Thet Hmoo Aung, 26, a candidate for the People’s Party, one of a handful of non-military-affiliated parties that have been allowed to run, spent Friday going from door to door in his Yangon constituency.
“Please vote,” he said. “Yes, I’m running.” An elderly shopkeeper took his yellow flier and smiled, but said nothing.
Voters have mostly been too tired or too wary to engage with the campaign, Thet Hmoo Aung said. His party won only one seat in the national parliament during the first two rounds of voting, and he’s worried those most sympathetic to its platform won’t turn out for the final round.
“If people don’t go to vote, someone they don’t like will be in power still,” he said. He was careful not to speak more directly. The streets through which he was weaving were hotspots for the youth-led demonstrations that erupted in 2021 when the military seized power. But even mentioning those protests was dangerous: Just weeks earlier, another candidate in his party was sentenced to a year in prison for mentioning the “2021 uprising” in a TikTok video.
Walking around polling centers on Sunday, Thet Hmoo Aung said he felt his fears compounding. By midday, his assessment was that only about a fifth of voters had cast their ballots. “Elected or not,” he said, “we will try to work for the country.”
In the lead-up to the polls, diplomats and analysts anticipated some violence from pro-democracy militias. But attacks have been small and sporadic. “The reality is the population is absolutely exhausted,” said Adam Castillo, an American security consultant in Myanmar.
The country’s economy has cratered under military rule. Foreign investors have fled and the Myanmar kyat has collapsed in value. Onerous restrictions on imports and exports are stanching supplies of food and medicine. Nearly half the population lives in poverty, according to the United Nations, twice the percentage of six years before.
Yangon is a “bubble” where life appears to churn on, its residents say. But just underneath the surface lies uneasiness: Many of the young men in the city are recent arrivals who fled military conscription elsewhere. Teenage girls at shopping malls say they came to the city after months hiding from the crossfire between the military and rebels in their hometowns. Many want to leave the country.
“I want to go so, so badly,” said Thiri Shoon Lae, 20. She took a break from high school when the coup happened and didn’t return until 2023. As soon as she gets her diploma, she said, she wants to find a way to leave. Her parents are supportive. “They say, ‘the sooner you go, the better,’” she said.
The international community has shunned the junta since the coup. It’s been barred from taking Myanmar’s seat at the United Nations and disinvited from meetings held by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
The European Union and United Kingdom have said they do not regard the elections as free or fair. Some of Myanmar’s neighbors, including Malaysia and the Philippines, have also said they will not recognize the polls as legitimate.
Myanmar’s senior general, Min Aung Hlaing, who faces a potential arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court for his role in directing the military’s atrocities against the Rohingya, shrugged off the criticism from foreign governments as he toured polling centers in the city of Mandalay. “[People] voted freely, and we don’t understand why foreign countries won’t recognize that,” he said.
The military has said it will form a quasi-civilian government by April. Under Chinese pressure, it’s likely some nations will re-engage the regime, predicted Richard Horsey, senior Myanmar adviser for the International Crisis Group.
“There might be some new faces — that much is true,” Horsey said. “But I find it very hard to imagine that this new administration will have the space or the will to really do what would be needed to put Myanmar on a positive track.”
But Khin Zaw Win, a former political prisoner who leads a think tank from Yangon, sees no counter to China’s influence over the country. The United States under Trump has reduced its programs and diplomatic presence here, and four European countries are set this year to close their missions.
“What choice do we have?” Khin Zaw Win asked. “China is the only one with leverage. And the only one who’s here.”
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