The winter storm barreling across the United States is expected to descend on New York City and the surrounding region on Sunday, disrupting transportation and daily life through Monday.
Meteorologists on Saturday were adjusting the forecast for the impending storm as it was becoming increasingly clear to them that New York City will get hit with heavy snow followed by sleet.
Snow falls and stays in place, while sleet — small ice pellets — bounces around when it first hits the ground and can form into a treacherous slush that freezes into icy layers on roads and sidewalks.
“We’re still going to get a pretty good dump of snow at the onset followed by a wintry mess near the tail end of it,” said Bryan Ramsey, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Upton, N.Y.
With the storm approaching, a winter storm warning was issued for parts of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut from 3 a.m. Sunday through 6 p.m. Monday, with power outages and major travel impacts expected.
Snow starting early Sunday, then sleet in the afternoon.
Temperatures dropped ahead of the storm as Arctic air from Canada funneled into the region, and a low of 9 degrees was recorded in Central Park on Saturday. It’s the first time the city has measured a temperature below 10 degrees since Feb. 4, 2023, the Weather Service said.
Temperatures overnight are poised to drop into the teens and are not likely to rise above the high 20s on Sunday. It’s going to be cold.
Snow is expected to begin falling across the region early Sunday well before sunrise, and it will accumulate quickly, with several inches on the ground by late morning.
At some point in the afternoon, likely starting at about 1 p.m. to 3 p.m., forecasters expect the snow will begin to turn to sleet, mainly across areas along the coast, including in northeast New Jersey, New York City, Long Island and coastal Connecticut. At this point, the region will already likely be blanketed in snow.
Mr. Ramsey explained that the chance for sleet will increase as the storm system pulls warm air into the higher levels of the atmosphere. The falling snow will melt as it passes through that warm air and then freeze up again into little balls when it reaches the colder layer of air near the ground.
While snow falls to the ground quietly, Mr. Ramsey described the sound of sleet like “chicken feed hitting a metal pan,” and people may actually hear the transition from snow to sleet.
Late in the evening, the sleet could turn back to light snow that continues into early Monday.
With the latest forecast, snowfall totals for coastal areas of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut have come down. These areas were originally predicted to receive 12 to 16 inches of snow and now they’re more likely to record 8 to 12 inches.
The latest forecast puts Central Park at 12 inches of snow, and that’s still the highest snowfall seen there in several years. The last time New York’s weather station in the park saw more than a foot of snow from a single storm was in 2021.
Areas away from the coast are less likely to get sleet and could still record 12 to 16 inches of snow, Mr. Ramsey said.
Amid the falling sleet and snow, winds are expected to develop in the afternoon and evening, especially along the coast, bringing near white-out conditions. The strongest winds, up to 40 miles per hour, are expected in coastal Long Island and coastal Connecticut.
There’s also a slight chance across the region for isolated lightning strikes in the most intense bands of snow — a weather phenomenon that’s often referred to as “thundersnow.”
While the precipitation is predicted to taper off on Monday and skies will clear on Tuesday, the unusually cold temperatures will persist through the week.
“It’s supposed to stay below freezing through next Saturday at least,” Mr. Ramsey said. “That means that snow is going to be stuck here for awhile.”
Amy Graff is a Times reporter covering weather, wildfires and earthquakes.
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