Ranking all 32 NFL teams entering Week 12 of the season

Two teams have separated from the pack, and both come from the NFC West. The Los Angeles Rams climb back to No. 1 in our power rankings this week backed by what looks like the league’s most complete roster, capable of winning with offense, defense or timely turnovers. The Seattle Seahawks, despite their narrow loss in Los Angeles, rise to No. 2 on the strength of a very good overall performance that showed how dangerous they can be.

As a reminder: Our power rankings differ from most of our counterparts’ in that they are not tied to win-loss records or nonquantifiable ideas such as momentum or positive vibes. They are simply a reflection of what our model says are the best teams in the NFL right now and how they should be expected to perform moving forward.

Disagree with the order? Let us know in the comments or on social media.

Top contenders

1. Los Angeles Rams (8-2-0)

2. Seattle Seahawks (7-3-0)

3. Kansas City Chiefs (5-5-0)

4. Indianapolis Colts (8-2-0)

5. Detroit Lions (6-4-0)

6. Buffalo Bills (7-3-0)

7. Philadelphia Eagles (8-2-0)

Seattle rises to No. 2 because our power ratings measure how well a team played overall, not just the final score, and the Seahawks were the stronger team for most of the game. They gained more yards, dominated time of possession and completely shut down the Rams’ offense after the first quarter. The loss was mainly a result of four Sam Darnold interceptions — high-impact turnovers that swing outcomes but don’t reflect Seattle’s underlying performance. Many will point to those interceptions — and Darnold’s high-profile struggles at the end of last season and in Sunday’s loss — as a reason to fade Seattle, particularly in big spots, but the fact remains that this is one of the strongest teams in the league.

Kansas City still measures up as one of the best teams in football, despite its .500 record. It is mistakes that keep costing the Chiefs wins, but they consistently outgain teams and have success moving the ball. And before you yell at me for having them this high, keep in mind that they are 3.5-point favorites this Sunday against the 8-2 Colts — meaning the oddsmakers rate them as 2 points better than Indianapolis, before factoring in home-field advantage.

Cue the outrage from Eagles fans: Detroit remains ahead of Philadelphia despite the latter winning their head-to-head matchup Sunday night. Why? For starters, the game was played in bad weather and featured 11 punts and six turnovers on downs. Five of those fourth-down stops were from the Eagles, a feat unlikely to be replicated in any game the remainder of the season. Meanwhile, underlying numbers for the season such as offensive success rate, net success rate, offensive expected points added per play and expected points added without the benefit of turnovers all favor Detroit. Philly has a convincing edge in the standings, but for now, our model views the Lions as the better team.

Strong challengers

8. Green Bay Packers (6-3-1)

9. Baltimore Ravens (5-5-0)

The Ravens move the ball, play tough defense and create pressure — all signs of a good team. Yet too many of their offensive drives fall short of the end zone. They only score touchdowns 47 percent of the time after reaching the red zone (29th in the league) and 68 percent of the time in goal-to-go situations (25th), per data from TruMedia. Their turnover rate on drives is also poor (11 percent, 20th).

Solid playoff teams

10. Denver Broncos (9-2-0)

11. New England Patriots (9-2-0)

12. San Francisco 49ers (7-4-0)

13. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4-0)

14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4-0)

15. Houston Texans (5-5-0)

16. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4-0)

The two teams with the best record in the league appear at Nos. 10 and 11 of our power ratings. But our model has its reasons.

Denver has a very strong defense but has struggled on the offensive side of the ball, with an overall profile closer to a middle-of-the-pack team than one of the best teams in the NFL. The Broncos’ success in the standings has come largely from consistently coming up big in key moments — including in Sunday’s victory over the Chiefs.

New England, meanwhile, has benefited from an easy schedule and deserves credit for playing clean, mistake-free football. While that formula has produced victories, their overall quality doesn’t match their record. According to Aaron Schatz’s defense-adjusted value over average, a metric that measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent, we would expect the Patriots to have five wins, not nine.

The Bucs rely heavily on big plays to cover up long stretches of inconsistency. Against stronger teams, their passing game sputters and the defense can’t hold up.

In the hunt for playoff spots

17. Minnesota Vikings (4-6-0)

18. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4-0)

19. Chicago Bears (7-3-0)

20. Dallas Cowboys (4-5-1)

21. Atlanta Falcons (3-7-0)

22. Miami Dolphins (4-7-0)

The Bears might be 7-3, but their record is hiding how shaky they’ve been. We don’t even have to use advanced metrics to prove it: They actually have a negative point differential on the season, having been blown out in both games against winning teams. And their seven wins have come against opponents with a combined record of 19-50-1, including two one-point squeakers.

Red-zone failures (53 percent, 22nd), missed fourth downs (50 percent conversion rate, 20th) and defensive lapses have turned Miami’s winnable games into losses. The Dolphins are better than their record suggests, but too many small mistakes have added up each week.

Average teams

23. Carolina Panthers (6-5-0)

24. Arizona Cardinals (3-7-0)

25. New York Giants (2-9-0)

Carolina has survived poor rushing efficiency, shaky pass protection and inconsistent defense by finding just enough explosive plays each week.

Below-average teams

26. Las Vegas Raiders (2-8-0)

27. Cleveland Browns (2-8-0)

28. New Orleans Saints (2-8-0)

29. Washington Commanders (3-8-0)

Washington defense finally showed signs of life in Madrid, holding Miami to field goals and standing tall at the goal line, but the offense continues to waste opportunities with missed kicks, stalled drives and untimely mistakes.