Unlike what sometimes unfolds with hurricanes and other extreme weather events, this weekend’s winter storm may not immediately cause power outages and other electrical problems.
Energy experts warned that the worst effects of the potentially catastrophic storm could come on Monday and Tuesday in areas like Texas and the Mid-Atlantic States, after snow and ice accumulate on tree branches and power lines, eventually causing them to snap and damage electrical equipment.
The damage could be compounded by sharp increases in electricity demand at the start of the week. Peak energy usage typically occurs in the early morning and evening hours on weekdays, when consumers fire up their appliances and raise the temperature on their thermostats as they get ready for work and school, and again after they return home.
“Just because the snow stops, that doesn’t mean the worst is over,” said Wei Du, a managing consultant for PA Consulting, which advises utilities, investors and other in the energy industry. “That’s frequently not the case.”
Analysis by ICF, an energy consulting firm, shows that the main grid in Texas, which is run by Electric Reliability Council of Texas, will hit its peak demand between 5 a.m. and 8 a.m. on Monday. Across the Mid-Atlantic region, on the grid managed by PJM, which includes 13 states and the District of Columbia, demand is expected to crest from 7 a.m. to 10 a.m. on Tuesday. That’s when the system operator anticipates it will reach the highest winter demand in its history.
PJM also warned customers that it may extend its winter weather alert through Jan. 30. That has prompted utilities and government officials to call on large energy users like data centers to prepare to reduce the amount of power they take from the grid.
“Definitely in the PJM system things are going to be extremely thin, and frankly we are concerned.” said George Katsigiannakis, a vice president at ICF.
The anticipated demand on Tuesday is almost 10 percent higher than the highest demand last winter, Mr. Katsigiannakis said. But PJM has not added many new power plants, batteries and other resources to its system. The Texas grid, by comparison, has added many new large battery storage systems and solar farms.
During recent winter storms, the freezing temperatures shut down many power plants connected to the PJM and Texas grids.
In February 2021, the main Texas grid experienced a huge failure that left many electricity customers without power for days. More than 200 people died in that storm.
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Then, over the Christmas holidays in 2022, about a quarter of the natural gas power plants in PJM’s service area failed as snow, wind and subzero temperatures froze natural gas pipelines. Various types of power plants — fossil fuel and renewables like solar and wind — failed during both the 2021 and 2022 storms. But in PJM’s case, about 70 percent of the units were fueled by natural gas.
Mr. Katsigiannakis said managers of the Texas and PJM grids have tried to strengthen their systems to withstand the extreme winter weather, as neighboring energy networks in the Midwest do. Such potent winter storms had not been as common in Texas or at PJM, which extends from around the Chicago area to Virginia Beach.
The powerful storm this week began making its way east from the Rocky Mountains, and is expected to drop snow, sleet and freezing rain on an area that runs from the Southwest into New England, and is home to more than 160 million people.
The grid managers said they have sufficient reserves to meet the anticipated demand over the weekend and next week but are preparing for a storm that is worse than expected. Depending on the actual path it takes, the wintry mix could pose challenges for multiple grid systems, straining resources.
“This is a formidable arctic cold front coming our way, and it will impact our neighboring systems as much as it affects PJM,” Mike Bryson, senior vice president of operations for PJM, said in a statement.
The Edison Electric Institute, a utility industry organization, said top executives at its member companies were coordinating responses with state and federal agencies to minimize power outages.
Part of the strategy includes tamping down demand from data centers that support development of artificial intelligence. These facilities are increasingly using a larger share of the country’s electricity, particularly in places like Ohio and Virginia, where forecasters are expecting snow squalls and freezing rain.
On Thursday, the energy secretary, Chris Wright, said the federal government was drafting orders that unused backup generators at data centers and “other major facilities” could be deployed to help prevent blackouts.
The orders would let grid operators force data centers to run on backup generators as a “last resort,” after all other supplies are exhausted. Data centers generally are not set up to feed energy back onto grids, but they can power their own operations from the generators, reducing the amount of electricity they draw from the grid.
Data centers must continue to operate to serve customers, but they “can maintain these operations by switching from grid power to temporarily using on-site backup generation resources that data centers maintain to serve in an emergency,” Josh Levi, president of the Data Center Coalition, an industry group, said in a statement.
Amazon, the largest cloud computing company, said it was monitoring the storm closely and coordinating with grid operators.
“Millions of customers including hospitals, first responders and government agencies depend on Amazon’s cloud services, and our systems are built for the resilience and reliability these essential sectors require,” said Scott LaBelle, a company spokesman.
Ivan Penn is a reporter based in Los Angeles and covers the energy industry. His work has included reporting on clean energy, failures in the electric grid and the economics of utility services.
The post Why the Power May Not Go Out Until After the Storm Has Passed appeared first on New York Times.
