It has been accused of interfering in European elections. It is searching the homes of journalists, apprehending anti-government protesters and prosecuting political opponents. And it is now eyeing the takeover of another nation’s land.
It isn’t Russia. It is the United States.
Moscow celebrated its good fortune in recent days, as President Trump imperiled the Western military alliance with a crusade to take over Greenland. But the arrival of a transactional Washington wielding unchecked power in the world, analysts say, also poses challenges for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, who is used to playing that role.
“This moment is filled with all kinds of promise and peril for Putin,” said Fiona Hill, who ran Russian and European affairs on the White House National Security Council during the first Trump administration. “For him, it’s going to be complicated, just like for everyone else.”
Mr. Putin has gained geopolitical advantage for years by throwing around Russian power aggressively in global affairs and taking big military and intelligence risks. An American president acting the same way benefits Mr. Putin, so long as they see eye to eye, but otherwise threatens to check his influence, because Washington’s global military and economic power outstrips that of Russia, analysts say.
“The United States is basically saying, ‘We’re with you and we’re going to do the same things you’re doing,’” Ms. Hill said.
That marks a new reality for Mr. Putin.
“The problem for him might well be that Trump may try to out-Putin him,” Ms. Hill said.
For nearly 20 years, Mr. Putin has pushed for an end to a “unipolar world” dominated by Washington. But in a global arena without rules, where each nation tries to maximize its power, the United States in many ways towers over Russia. The power Mr. Trump has demonstrated over American tech billionaires who wield vast influence around the world cannot be matched by Mr. Putin, Ms. Hill noted. Nor can Mr. Trump’s influence over global trade.
“This is kind of, ‘Be careful what you wish for,’” she said.
So far, much of Mr. Trump’s second term has prompted elation in Moscow, demonstrating the benefits of his presidency for the Kremlin.
His early moves to dismantle U.S.A.I.D., a longtime bête noire of the Kremlin, shut down U.S.-funded media outlets and promote Russia-friendly far-right parties in Europe has demonstrated a clear abandonment of U.S. policies that have rankled Moscow for years. Mr. Trump’s blowup with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine in the Oval Office last year underscored the point, emphasizing a loathing for European liberals shared by leaders in Moscow and Washington alike.
The elation in Russia reached new levels in the past week, as Mr. Trump demanded control of Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, and advanced Mr. Putin’s longtime aim of dividing the United States and Europe.
Mr. Trump backtracked on his threat to take Greenland by force after the U.S. stock market plummeted. But the episode has sparked an unresolved crisis within NATO, the military alliance that the United States and its allies established in 1949 to constrain Moscow’s influence in Europe.
Mr. Putin on Wednesday said that what happened in Greenland would be of no consequence to Russia, and suggested that Mr. Trump could work out a deal to buy the territory. Mr. Putin also took a swipe at Denmark, one of the largest per capita backers of Ukraine, saying Copenhagen treated the territory cruelly as a colony.
Since Mr. Trump returned to the White House, Mr. Putin has focused on using the arrival of a more Kremlin-friendly administration in Washington to achieve his goals in Ukraine.
The Russian leader, analysts say, appears intent on securing the dividends that a renewed relationship with the United States would unlock for Moscow under Mr. Trump, without sacrificing his core demands on Ukraine.
That has required standing down when Mr. Trump has crossed Russian interests in other parts of the world.
In the three weeks since the U.S. military attacked Venezuela and captured the nation’s president, Nicolás Maduro, Mr. Putin has yet to mention the Venezuelan leader’s name in public. When the United States seized a Russian-flagged oil tanker fleeing across the Atlantic this month, Mr. Putin said nothing.
The Russian leader stood aside last year when Israel and the United States conducted strikes on Iran, offering little more than a harsh statement.
He vowed this month to defend Cuba’s sovereignty, after Mr. Trump cut off the island nation’s supplies of Venezuelan oil and said its government was “ready to fall.” It is unclear, however, if Mr. Putin would cross the White House to rescue the longtime ally of Moscow, particularly if Mr. Trump is still mediating Ukraine talks.
“It’s a mixed bag if you are looking from Moscow’s standpoint,” said Thomas Graham, who led Russia policy on the White House National Security Council under President George W. Bush.
“Yes, it is good to see tensions between the United States and Europe, and the breaking of that trans-Atlantic alliance, which Russia has been trying to do for decades,” he said. “But there has to be some concern about how the United States is going to deploy its own military forces, its own economic forces, across the globe in places with Russian interests.”
Mr. Graham said that in a world where everything is about raw power, Mr. Putin must worry about Russia’s ability to keep up with China and the United States.
The Russian leader is now faced with an invitation to join Mr. Trump’s “Board of Peace,” which could threaten to erode the global power that Moscow wields with its permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council. Officially, Mr. Putin has said Russia is studying the matter and has yet to decide.
From Venezuela to Greenland, Mr. Trump is seeking to increase American influence in the Western Hemisphere, but there is no sign he intends to stop there and cede Europe as Moscow’s zone of influence, Mr. Graham noted.
“There is nothing about spheres of influence in Trump’s thinking,” Mr. Graham said. “Basically you get as much as you can defend.”
Paul Sonne is an international correspondent, focusing on Russia and the varied impacts of President Vladimir V. Putin’s domestic and foreign policies, with a focus on the war against Ukraine.
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