In popular European destinations like Barcelona and Florence, the sleepy off-season has come alive, as visitors flee both overtourism and the summer heat. That shift away from peak-season travel shows no signs of slowing this year.
“Americans are looking to avoid peak season in Europe, and it’s going to be even more of a trend as more baby boomers are retiring and school calendars and work calendars aren’t as important as ‘When can I go find a good deal?’” said Jamie Lane, the chief economist and senior vice president of analytics at AirDNA, a company that collects and analyzes short-term-rental data.
In Florence, Italy, AirDNA data showed short-term-rental demand was up more than 40 percent in February 2025, and nearly 35 percent in March, compared with the 2018-19 average for the same period. In July 2025, by contrast, it was up just 0.7 percent, and August was down nearly 6 percent.
“Demand has spread out more during the year and the market is absolutely less seasonal than it used to be,” Mr. Lane said.
The shift is also reflected in air travel, especially in southern Europe — Expedia searches for fall flights to several destinations across Italy, Greece, Portugal and the Canary Islands were up more than 50 percent in 2025 compared with 2024, according to the company.
But even with explosive shoulder season growth, travelers need not fear that the offseason could become as crowded or expensive as summer, said Melanie Fish, the vice president of public relations at Expedia Group.
“Reports of the death of off-season deals have been greatly exaggerated,” she said. “The windows between peak seasons are still the best bet for avoiding crowds and avoiding the highest prices.”
She pointed out that Expedia searches for fall travel to Barcelona in 2025 were about 40 percent lower than searches for summer travel. And, she said, more tourists are looking to escape the crowds in places like Greece not just with their timing, but by visiting different destinations. Lodging searches for last fall on the less touristy Greek island of Naxos, for example, were up 50 percent year over year.
Gabe Castro-Root is a travel reporter and a member of the 2025-26 Times Fellowship class, a program for journalists early in their careers.
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