The record for the most Oscar nominations is 14, a total accrued by only three movies: “La La Land” (2016), “Titanic” (1997) and “All About Eve” (1950).
Could this be the year that 75-year-old record finally falls?
I’m inclined to think so. In fact, two of this year’s top contenders — “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another” — have a real shot at cracking that ceiling when the nominations are announced on Thursday. It helps that the Oscars just introduced a casting category that will pad nomination totals from here on out, but both contenders should prove huge in their own right, with “Sinners” particularly well-positioned not just to break that record but also to blow past it if the movie overperforms.
In the meantime, here are my projected nominees in the top six Oscar categories with my predictions in bold. Industry buzz factors into these picks, as do the nominations and wins bestowed by key precursors like the Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild, Producers Guild of America and Directors Guild of America. And when even those weren’t enough, I went with my gut.
Best Picture
Five films this season scored top nominations from the producers, directors and actors guilds: “One Battle After Another,” “Sinners,” “Hamnet,” “Marty Supreme” and “Frankenstein.” So that’s half of our best-picture list sorted.
Though the Norwegian drama “Sentimental Value” raised red flags after missing out on any Screen Actors Guild nominations, the academy is far more inclined to reward international films and the supporting actor Stellan Skarsgard helpfully won the Golden Globe the day before Oscar voting began. Brazil’s “The Secret Agent” also nabbed two Globes at exactly the right time, and though the Iranian movie “It Was Just An Accident” hasn’t made much noise since its Gotham wins in early December, that Palme d’Or from Cannes should keep it in contention.
As other Netflix contenders like “Jay Kelly” and “A House of Dynamite” lost momentum, the streamer’s elegiac period piece “Train Dreams” kept on chugging with top-ten citations from the producers guild and American Film Institute. And though “Bugonia” wasn’t received as rapturously as “Poor Things,” another recent collaboration between Emma Stone and the director Yorgos Lanthimos, SAG nominations for Stone and her co-star, Jesse Plemons, suggest the movie is still alive and kicking.
Best Director
I’m taking a conservative approach to this category and predicting a perfect match with the five auteurs already nominated by the directors guild: Paul Thomas Anderson (“One Battle After Another”), Ryan Coogler (“Sinners”), Guillermo del Toro (“Frankenstein”), Josh Safdie (“Marty Supreme”) and Chloé Zhao (“Hamnet”).
Joachim Trier (“Sentimental Value”) managed a BAFTA longlist citation that del Toro didn’t get, but Oscar voters adore del Toro, a former winner in this category for “The Shape of Water” (2018). The dissident filmmaker Jafar Panahi (“It Was Just an Accident”) has an incredibly compelling personal story — after shooting the film in secret, he was sentenced in absentia by Iran to a year in prison — but will that be enough?
Though the directors’ branch of the academy likes to throw curveballs, I expect a straight-down-the-middle outcome this time.
Best Actor
Before January was half-over, “Marty Supreme” star Timothée Chalamet won the Critics Choice Award and Golden Globe for lead actor in a comedy. He’s in. Leonardo DiCaprio (“One Battle After Another”) and Michael B. Jordan (“Sinners”) lead the two strongest contenders, so they should be in, too — though it’s worth noting that Oscar voters have sometimes snubbed both men even when their films went on to win multiple awards.
The Golden Globe for lead actor in a drama went to Wagner Moura (“The Secret Agent”), and I expect he will get the same late surge of momentum that carried his fellow Brazilian star Fernanda Torres to a nomination for best actress last year. Although the terrific Ethan Hawke (“Blue Moon”) has a strong case for the fifth slot in this category, it’s more likely to go to someone leading a best-picture nominee, like Joel Edgerton (“Train Dreams”) or Jesse Plemons (“Bugonia”). In this tightly contested battle, I’m predicting Plemons.
Best Actress
The “Hamnet” star Jessie Buckley is widely considered the one to beat in this race, so her slot is secure. Renate Reinsve (“Sentimental Value”) and Emma Stone (“Bugonia”) hail from likely best-picture nominees, so I’d expect them, too. And after Rose Byrne emerged as a critics’ favorite for “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You,” her recent Golden Globe win may nudge more voters to catch her still-underseen performance.
Many pundits presume the other slot in this race will go to Chase Infiniti, who plays the daughter of DiCaprio’s character in “One Battle After Another” and is being campaigned by Warner Bros. as a lead-actress contender. However, if Infiniti picks up more votes in the supporting-actress category and is nominated there instead, it could free up room for the “Song Sung Blue” star Kate Hudson, whose full-throttle awards campaign has drawn A-list academy members like DiCaprio and Al Pacino to receptions in her honor.
Best Supporting Actor
Of the four acting categories, this one appears to have the most locked-in lineup. “One Battle After Another” should claim two slots for Sean Penn andBenicio Del Toro while Paul Mescal (“Hamnet”), Jacob Elordi (“Frankenstein”), and the Golden Globe winner Stellan Skarsgard round out the field.
Could any other contenders sneak in? Netflix mounted a robust campaign for the “Jay Kelly” star Adam Sandler, though the film is fading fast. And “Sinners” would have a stronger chance of breaking the all-time nominations record if Delroy Lindo or the SAG nominee Miles Caton makes the cut.
Best Supporting Actress
Unlike the supporting-actor category, this one feels anything but settled. Yes, you can count on the Golden Globe winner Teyana Taylor (“One Battle After Another”) and Critics Choice Award winner Amy Madigan (“Weapons”) to show up. Then what?
Will Chase Infiniti end up in this category if voters miss the memo about her placement, or might her co-star Regina Hall snag a slot if “One Battle After Another” overperforms? “Marty Supreme” has juicy supporting parts for the Oscar winner Gwyneth Paltrow and SAG nominee Odessa A’zion. Could either (or both) be building late momentum?
“Sentimental Value” also has a twofer in contention, but I sense stronger support for Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas than Elle Fanning, making the Norwegian actress my pick for one of the remaining slots. “Wicked: For Good” won’t match the nominations total of the first film, but I believe Ariana Grande can still break through since her strongest dramatic material comes in the sequel. And save a final slot for Wunmi Mosaku, who earned a SAG nomination and a BAFTA shortlist mention for “Sinners.” Her nomination would be key to pushing that film to historic highs.
Kyle Buchanan is a pop culture reporter and also serves as The Projectionist, the awards season columnist for The Times.
The post Predicting the 2026 Oscar Nominations: Who’s In? Who’s Out? appeared first on New York Times.
