It’s hard to look away from the scenes in Minneapolis. A 37-year-old woman, Renee Good, fatally shot by an Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent. A young man shouting “I’m a U.S. citizen!” as federal agents hauled him away. Protests this week after a federal agent shot and injured someone.
As tensions flare in the city, I wanted to try to make sense of the political implications — with the caveats that this is a rapidly evolving situation, and that the Trump administration and local officials are in dispute over what happened in the chaotic moments before Good was shot.
So I turned to my friends and colleagues Jenny Medina and Lisa Lerer for a Slack conversation on Friday morning about ICE, immigration politics and how both could play a role in the midterm elections. Here’s what we discussed, edited and condensed for clarity.
Katie Glueck: Hi guys! Jenny, you had a great story this week looking at how Democrats are grappling with the way to talk about ICE raids. Tell us a little about the competing pressures for Democrats.
Jennifer Medina: The vast majority of Democrats — both elected leaders and voters — believe that the Trump administration is being far too aggressive with its immigration enforcement tactics. The question for Democrats is what to do, and how to talk about it.
Some think the only way to get lasting change is by starting over and eliminating the agency, hence the renewed “Abolish ICE” calls. But plenty of others worry that embracing that message could have devastating consequences, politically and practically.
Katie Glueck: I’ve definitely heard from some moderates who are worried that “Abolish ICE” becomes the next “Defund the Police” and ends up backfiring. In Minnesota, officials are also urging protesters to demonstrate peacefully, warning that any other approach would play intoPresident Trump’s hands.
Lisa, immigration has historically been a challenging issue for Democrats to navigate. You and I spent some time yesterday with Democratic House candidates who are running in battleground districts. What were your impressions of how they’re thinking about this?
Lisa Lerer: Democrats in purple districts are not embracing full-throated calls to eliminate ICE. Instead, they are first saying that the country needs a “secure” border. And then, they are quickly pivoting to attacking ICE’s aggressive tactics, arguing that this approach makes cities less safe. But, honestly, how intense of an issue this is electorally depends a bit on where you are running.
Katie Glueck: Are there places either of you are watching where this feels especially urgent electorally?
Lisa Lerer: Well, most of the highest-profile efforts have been focused on blue cities — Chicago, Minneapolis, Charlotte and the Research Triangle in North Carolina, and Los Angeles — so any nearby suburban swing seats for the House are certainly places where this issue could be more resonant.
Jennifer Medina: There are several competitive House districts in the Southwest that have a large number of Hispanic voters and have swung toward Trump in recent presidential elections. How those voters react to the second Trump administration could decide control of the House.
Katie Glueck: This issue could also factor into races for Senate and governor, right?
Jennifer Medina: Definitely — I’m especially curious how this all plays out in North Carolina and Georgia.
Lisa Lerer: I do wonder if the Minnesota unrest will end up being a turning point in how this issue is playing politically. I was struck by a national Quinnipiac poll this week showing that 82 percent of voters had seen video of Good being shot by the agent. And, Katie, some of the Democratic candidates we talked to this week — ones in areas that haven’t had the same level of immigration enforcement — told us they are starting to get asked about ICE for the first time.
America is definitely paying attention to this issue now.
Katie Glueck: Pat Ryan, a House Democrat in New York, told me recently that at least some Trump voters in his district thought that ICE was overreaching, AND that their affordability concerns weren’t being met.
In 2024, Republicans were effective in arguing that Democrats were more focused on culture wars than on Americans’ pocketbooks. I wonder if some Democrats try the reverse of that argument and suggest that Republicans are more focused on violent crackdowns than on affordability.
Jennifer Medina: I spoke to several Democrats this week who said that should be their precise strategy — that prices keep going up while billions of dollars are being spent on harsh immigration enforcement tactics.
Katie Glueck: Jenny, you’ve written extensively about Hispanic voters. Do we know whether some who voted for Trump in 2024 are swinging back to the Democrats now, or is it too early to say?
Jennifer Medina: Several polls suggest that some Hispanic Trump voters are having buyer’s remorse and are particularly frustrated about both the economy and deportation operations. But it isn’t necessarily the case that those voters will turn toward Democrats, particularly in the midterms. Many of those voters chose Trump out of frustration and could simply sit this year out.
Katie Glueck: How are Republicans thinking about the politics of this issue? I saw Joe Rogan, the influential right-leaning podcaster, suggesting that some of the tactics were reminiscent of the Gestapo.
Lisa Lerer: There is uneasiness in some quarters. Strategists and candidates were already bracing for a tough midterm election. A sense of chaos in the country is never good for the party in power. There’s plenty of polling showing that independents disapprove of ICE tactics.
While polling indicates that Republicans are largely sticking with Trump, some of those voters have a history of not showing up when he’s not on the ballot. That makes winning over self-described independents even more important in those purple areas.
Jennifer Medina: Some Republicans are taking a page from the White House and projecting utter confidence. But I’ve also heard from Republicans like Representative Maria Elvira Salazar, who represents Miami and is deeply concerned that her party is going far beyond what public sentiment supports. She is worried the party will erase the gains it has made with Hispanic voters.
Katie Glueck: Yes, I was struck by what Salazar said in your article — “I don’t want the Hispanic community, my community, to believe or to think that the G.O.P. doesn’t love them.” Representative Sarah McBride, a Delaware Democrat, recently told me that part of her party’s problem in 2024 was that some voters simply thought Democrats didn’t like them.
It seems so basic, Politics 101. But if voters don’t think a party likes or cares about or respects them, why should they support that party?
What Minnesota means to Trump
As Trump zeroes in on Minneapolis as his latest Democratic-led urban target, my colleague Charles Homans, a Minnesota native, reflects on the greater significance of the state to the president and his administration.
Minnesota, he writes, embodies a civic ideal — it’s a historical haven for refugees with an extensive social safety net — that the Trump administration is seeking to discredit.
The 2026 Map Fight
The redistricting race heats up in Virginia
Virginia just moved a step closer to giving Democrats a few more U.S. House seats.
On Friday, state lawmakers passed a constitutional amendment that would allow the state’s Democratic-led legislature to redraw Virginia’s congressional districts before the midterm elections.
But first the state’s voters will need to approve the amendment in a referendum as soon as this spring.
Take Our Quiz
This question comes from a recent article in The Times. Click an answer to see if you’re right. (The link will be free.)
The Trump Store, which sold a variety of merchandise related to the president and his political movement out of a storefront near Philadelphia, is closing its doors. Which of the following was not an item for sale that our photographer Hannah Beier captured on camera?
Taylor Robinson contributed reporting.
Katie Glueck is a Times national political reporter.
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