President Trump has several avenues to attack Iran over its deadly crackdown on anti-government protesters, with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Tehran’s security forces, energy sites and — yet again — its nuclear facilities sitting at the top of the list of potential targets, experts told The Post on Tuesday.
As tensions ramp up between Washington and Tehran over the death toll — which has reportedly reached into the thousands — Trump has repeatedly warned that he could take military action against Iran.
The president’s actions could range from that direct assault against Iran using US bombers to the deployment of sophisticated cyber attacks, to getting Starlink to provide internet access to protesters amid a nationwide communications blackout, said Nicholas Carl, the assistant director for the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute think tank.
The president suggested that direct US intervention may soon be deployed after he cut off negotiationswith the Islamic Republic on Tuesday.
And he warned Iran leaders to stop killing the protesters.
“They’ve got to show humanity. They’ve got a big problem, and I hope they’re not going to be killing people, and I’m going to have a report very soon. It would seem to me that they have been badly misbehaving,” the president said on Tuesday evening.
The US last attacked the Islamic Republic during the 12-day war, hitting its nuclear facilities, with Iran warning that another attack from the US would be met with retaliation against US troops in the region.
Killing Khamenei
US intervention could take many forms, with a direct strike targeting Khamenei likely being the move that could spark the greatest change in Iran, Carl said.
“A single strike may not be that effective depending on the target, but a single strike to take out the leader of the regime would see the protests energized and serve as an effective message to Iran,” he added.
Killing Khamenei, however, could also be a double-edged sword, Carl warned, explaining that it could cause the entire regime to collapse and sow nationwide disorder.
Dan Caldwell, a former senior adviser to Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, agreed that taking out the Ayatollah would be risky, with the Trump administration likely leaning on the lessons learned in Venezuela to avoid a total regime change in favor of stability.
“The biggest thing that the administration is going to want to avoid going forward is state collapse. What they want to avoid is Iran turning into another Libya or another Syria,” Caldwell said.
Taking aim at security forces
Aside from Khamenei, Carl said the Trump administration could launch a series of strikes against Iran’s national police or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which has been leading the brutal crackdown on protesters.
Alan Eyre, a former US diplomat and now Iran expert with the Middle East Institute, said an attack against the security forces would be the more practical move and warning to Tehran.
“He could do a single strike right against an IRGC facility or besieged facility and that way demonstrate support with the Iranian people,” Eyre said.
Both Carl and Eyre noted that limited attacks on the security forces may not be enough to hinder Iran’s ability to suppress its citizens.
Nuclear, energy facilities remain a viable target
Iran’s nuclear facilities, which were hit last June in a joint operation by the US and Israel, remain a strong target for the US, Carl said. Some of the stockpile of near weapons-grade enriched uranium survived those airstrikes, a senior Israeli official said the following month.
During the 12-day war last summer, Israel said it decimated Iran’s missile defense systems, leaving the nuclear facilities also exposed to future attacks.
Along with the nuclear sites, the US could also go directly after Iran’s oil infrastructure and tankers, which would serve as a major blow to an already hurt Iranian economy, said John Ullyot, a former deputy assistant to President Trump.
Other avenues available
Experts have said the Trump administration also has several “non-kinetic” options available to deal with Iran, meaning methods of intervention that don’t involve military strikes but would consist of cyber and psychological operations.
The Trump administration could deploy Starlink satellites to support the protesters and provide them with a method of communications amid a nationwide blackout.
“Tehran wants the blackout because it keeps the protesters separated and unable to organize, so this would directly help them without direct military intervention,” Carl said.
In the same vein, Ullyot said that cyber attacks against Iran’s military and security forces could hinder Tehran’s ability to coordinate against the demonstrators.
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