Everyone on board a Jeju Air flight that crashed and killed 179 people just over a year ago would have survived if a concrete wall at the end of the runway had instead been built with materials that break apart easily, a previously undisclosed report to the South Korean government said.
The report, obtained by The New York Times on Friday, drew the conclusion based on computer simulations of the Boeing 737-800’s belly landing at the airport in Muan, in the country’s southwest. The accident would have ended differently had the wall, which houses navigation antennas called localizers, been made with frangible materials in accordance with international and South Korean guidelines, it said.
The report was written by a research group in Seoul commissioned by South Korea’s Transport Ministry as part of its official investigation into the crash. Findings from the report, completed in August, started coming to light after disclosures by a lawmaker on Thursday.
More than a year after the disaster, which killed all but two people on board, much is still unclear about why the passenger jet crash landed. The investigation is still ongoing and faces an uncertain future, as many relatives of the crash victims and lawmakers have questioned its credibility.
The engines were struck by birds as the plane approached the runway, and the pilots shut down one engine that appeared to have sustained less damage than the other before the emergency landing, drawing scrutiny. But the simulation report suggests that the landing could have been successful except for the wall.
A Times investigation last year found that the concrete berm — designed in 1999, modified to add concrete reinforcement in 2003, and reinforced with more concrete 10 months before the crash in 2024 — was built in violation of international safety guidelines. The Times also found that the solid wall most likely made the accident deadlier.
Since the crash, the Transport Ministry has pledged to improve runway infrastructure, including removing the concrete berms housing navigation devices that were found on runways at seven airports. By the end of last year, it had completed the work at five of the airports, the ministry said. The work has yet to be done at the airports in Muan and on Jeju Island.
Jeju Air Flight 2216, after departing from Thailand, touched down in Muan without deploying its landing gear at 232 miles per hour, according to the computer analysis of the crash. It glided on its body for 3,800 feet and collided with the concrete wall at about 161 m.p.h., with deadly force, the report said.
The computer model showed a different outcome for an alternate scenario in which the localizers at the end of the runway were made with softer materials, in accordance with safety guidelines. The aircraft would have glided through the localizers and the perimeter wall and stopped after sliding an additional distance of 2,070 feet, remaining largely intact and with no severe injuries.
The researchers conducted a separate simulation with the structure before the extra concrete slab was added in 2024, after four years of work. The model found that it did not add to the fatalities in a significant way.
The findings were first shared privately with lawmakers on the National Assembly’s special committee, which has audited the crash investigation since late last month. On Thursday, one member, Kim Eun-hye, published the main conclusions of the report.
Ms. Kim said those responsible for concrete structure should be held accountable, calling for them to be investigated by the police. So far, 44 people, including the former transport minister, have been reported to the police in connection to the crash, but no one has been charged.
“The simulation results that no one would have died if it weren’t for the berm are shocking,” she said in a statement, adding that they “overturned the government’s position that there was no problem with the berm.”
Kim Gihun, the director general of the South Korean investigation board, confirmed that the board had submitted the report to the committee.
“We’ve submitted everything we’ve found so far to the National Assembly,” he said. “Because you can’t hide from the national audit.”
The Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea, which produced the report, declined to comment, citing a confidentiality agreement.
The organization of crash victims’ relatives said that the findings showed that the disaster was preventable and criticized how long the findings were kept private.
“Not a single line of this report was released to the bereaved families,” the organization said in a statement.
Some relatives questioned why the report concluded that the most recent concrete addition to the wall did not cause fatalities.
“I believe this conclusion is probably intended to exonerate those currently in charge and those who have been involved since 2020,” said Lee Jun-hwa, an architect in Seoul who has studied the concrete berm since losing his mother in the crash.
Mr. Kim, of the investigation board, said that the report simply stated the simulation results.
John Yoon is a Times reporter based in Seoul who covers breaking and trending news.
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