All Eyes on the U.S. in 2026

America and the global economy in 2026

Yesterday we looked at what this year might bring for different parts of the world. Today we’re looking at the country that will affect most parts of the world: the United States. Will President Trump forge peace in Ukraine (and win the Nobel Peace Prize)? Will he invade Greenland? We also look at the potential for an A.I. bust, a debt crisis and a blow to Trump’s tariff policies. Here’s what my colleagues think 2026 might have in store for the U.S. and the global economy.

‘Trump is not popular’

David E. Sanger and Anton Troianovski, Washington correspondents

Trump makes no secret of his desire for a Nobel Peace Prize. He oversaw military strikes in a half-dozen countries in 2025, but he also spent much of the year trying to build his credentials as a peacemaker: a fragile cease-fire in Gaza, a diplomatic sprint for peace in Ukraine that has yet to pan out.

Then, on Saturday, he attacked Venezuela, the most stunning military intervention of his term.

Since then, he has threatened Colombia and Cuba, and warned Iran’s leaders that they could “get hit very hard.” The idea that the U.S. might acquire Greenland once seemed like a joke; after Venezuela, it would be foolish not to take him seriously.

But the U.S. president does face some constraints, including domestic politics. The midterm elections that determine control of the House and Senate will take place in November, and Trump is not popular: He has an approval rating of 42 percent. A recent poll found that just a third of U.S. voters approved of the strike on Venezuela.

Unpopular though the strike may have been, U.S. elections rarely turn on foreign policy. They turn on the economy, and that doesn’t bode well for Trump, either. Inflation has been pushing just over 3 percent (though the most recent numbers were lower), unemployment hit a four-year high, and Trump is already backing away from tariffs on beef and other products.

During the election itself, look for efforts to ban mail-in voting, which Trump claims, without evidence, leads to fraud. He could assert more federal control over the vote counting. Trump is expert at declaring elections “rigged.” If he loses, he presses the case; if he wins, he drops the subject.

The wild card

The A.I. boom that has been supporting the U.S. economy could turn out to be a bubble and end a remarkable run in the markets. If a 2009-style market meltdown follows, that could accelerate the sense among voters that the economy has been mismanaged.

The push for peace in Ukraine seems to be on shaky ground. But if a renewed effort actually stopped the fighting, who knows? Maybe he really could win the Nobel Peace Prize.

‘Uncertainty remains the watchword’

Patricia Cohen, global economics correspondent

Despite the havoc wrought by Trump’s helter-skelter tariff policies, the global economy last year proved to be more resilient than many feared. But uncertainty remains the watchword.

The surprise toppling of Venezuela’s leader and Trump’s claiming of the country’s oil reserves might be a prelude to even more American foreign interventions, which could reverberate through oil, crypto and stock markets. That’s on top of continuing conflicts and political tensions in Ukraine, the Middle East, Asia and elsewhere.

And then there’s the looming possibility that the U.S. Supreme Court rules Trump’s tariffs, which have hit roughly 90 countries, to be largely unconstitutional. China, for its part, is likely to continue to flood the world with cheap exports to sustain its own growth. Outside of the U.S., that could help keep inflation in check. But it will also put pressure on businesses in Europe, Southeast Asia and Latin America as they struggle to compete.

In the rivalry between China and the U.S., both powers will be pushing to make advances in artificial intelligence and robotics — priorities that will drive overall economic growth and soak up investment, and also significantly drive up the demand for energy and other key resources like water and critical minerals.

The wild card

Record debt in many wealthy economies, including the U.S., hasn’t gotten much attention but it puts a lot of stress on the global financial system.

U.S. Treasury bonds have long been the world’s safe haven, and the Federal Reserve has been relied on to provide the world with dollars in case of a short-term cash crunch. But central bankers and political leaders have started asking themselves whether the Fed, under pressure from Trump, can be counted on. Such high sovereign debt means “the system is fragile,” Richard Portes, an economist who serves on the European Systemic Risk Board, told me. We may find out this year if the world economy is operating without its usual safety net.

MORE TOP NEWS

The U.S. seizure of an oil tanker raised tensions with Russia

The U.S. Coast Guard had been chasing the tanker, the Bella 1, for more than two weeks after it was stopped on its way to pick up oil in Venezuela. Yesterday, it seized the tanker in the North Atlantic, the latest sign that Trump plans to continue to enforce a U.S. blockade on Venezuelan oil.

The Bella 1’s crew had been flying a Russian flag in a bid to avoid seizure. Russia had dispatched at least one naval vessel to meet and escort the ship. But U.S. officials said no Russian vessels were in the area when the Coast Guard boarded the ship, averting a possible standoff between the U.S. and Russia. U.S. forces also boarded another tanker yesterday in international waters near the Caribbean.

Watch my colleague Rebecca Elliott explain in the video above why Trump is fixated on Venezuela’s oil.

Trump Administration: Live Updates

Updated

More on Venezuela:

Security forces in Venezuela have stepped up repression in the days since Nicolás Maduro was ousted. At least 14 journalists were detained.
The Trump administration laid out a three-phase plan for stabilizing and rebuilding Venezuela and installing a new government. The energy secretary said that the U.S. intended to maintain control over Venezuela’s oil sales “indefinitely.”

OTHER NEWS

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Trump wants to buy Greenland, not invade it.
China has alarmed Japan with its threats to restrict exports of rare earths.
The directors of Ukraine’s two main intelligence agencies have been replaced.
Saudi Arabia struck Yemen after a separatist leader declined to fly to Riyadh for talks. The countries’ rift stranded hundreds of tourists on a Yemeni island.
Several people have been killed in intense fighting in Syria between government forces and a Kurdish-led militia in Aleppo.

The C.I.A. officer Aldrich Ames worked as a double agent for the Soviet Union, leading to the death of as many as 10 spies. He died at 84.

SPORTS

Cricket: England is on the verge of another Ashes defeat.

Football: The Supercopa de Espana kicked off in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.

PHRASE OF THE DAY

Hive minds

— Many people, one brain. It’s a classic storytelling device, and it’s showing up a lot more lately in movies and TV shows. Our critic Maya Phillips took a closer look at the trend.

MORNING READ

The era of killer robots is taking shape on the battlefields of Ukraine. Most drones used in combat require a human pilot. But, in a chilling technological transformation, some new ones, once locked on a target, can use A.I. to chase it down and strike with no further human involvement.

“I think we created the monster,” said a young physicist who writes software for A.I.-enhanced weapons. “And I’m not sure where it’s going to go.” Read more.

AROUND THE WORLD

Solving the dating puzzle in Silicon Valley

Can data help you optimize love? Some in Silicon Valley are betting that it can.

Amanda Hess, a critic at large, recently visited the Love Symposium, a gathering in San Francisco of “earnest founders, experts and intellectuals” seeking connection.

The ideas up for discussion included A.I. avatars that court virtually on your behalf to help you avoid bad first dates, and personalized A.I. agents that could identify potential partners by brightening the lights above them in a crowded bar.

One matchmaking start-up assesses factors like a person’s cheekbone prominence, jaw strength or I.Q. from photos and other materials submitted in an hourslong application process. The fee for a successful match: $50,000.

“If the woman is about half a standard deviation more agreeable than the man, that’s the optimal point for relationship durability,” a company manager said. Read more.

THE WELL CHALLENGE

It’s Day 3 of the five-day Brain Health Challenge. Today, we offer up perhaps the best single thing for your brain: exercise. Studies show that people who exercise regularly tend to perform better on attention, memory and executive function tests.

The best exercise you can do for your brain is the one you’ll do consistently. Answer four questions here to find your next workout.

Have brain health tips to share from your country? Email me at [email protected].

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See: Here are nine European exhibitions worth traveling for in 2026.

RECIPE

This cozy soup is inspired by tom kha gai, a Thai chicken-coconut soup. The ginger-scented chicken-cilantro meatballs are browned and then simmered in a fragrant coconut milk broth, all made in one pot and ready in 30 minutes.