During the pandemic, millions of Americans broke into the housing market thanks to sub-3% mortgage rates. But as mortgage rates and home prices started to climb—and while wages remained relatively stagnant—achieving the American dream feels further out of reach than ever. Indeed, the average age of a first-time home buyer climbed to an all-time high of 40 years, according to the National Association of Realtors.
“The historically low share of first-time buyers underscores the real-world consequences of a housing market starved for affordable inventory,” Jessica Lautz, NAR deputy chief economist and vice president of research, said in a statement. “The share of first-time buyers in the market has contracted by 50% since 2007—right before the Great Recession.”
While there’s been short-lived glimmers of hope that housing affordability could improve, like mortgage rates dropping from a 2023 peak of 8%, experts agree it’s “very unlikely” buying a home will become more affordable any time soon.
According to Realtor.com data shared with Fortune, at least one of three things would need to happen: mortgage rates would need to fall to 2.65%; median household income would need to rise by 56%; or home prices would need to decline by 35%. For the mortgage calculations, Realtor.com assumed a 10% down payment, historical income data reflected median household income from the latest Census, and home prices are based on the National Association of Realtors existing home sales price, and mortgage rates came from Freddie Mac, Hannah Jones, Realtor.com senior economic research analyst, told Fortune.
The current mortgage rate is about 6.15%, which means the rate would have to drop several percentage points to reach 2.65%. Meanwhile, the median household income would need to be $132,171, but it’s currently only $84,763. Home prices would need to drop to $273,000, down from $418,000, assuming incomes, mortgage rates, and the income share remain unchanged, Jones said. To put it in perspective, home prices have risen more than 50% in just the past six years, so a drop that significant would be astounding.
Unrealistic options
While it may be helpful to put actual figures on what it would take to make housing affordable, these options don’t realistically align with today’s market reality.
“The circumstances that lead to rates the sub-3% of 2020-2021 past were a worldwide, once-in-a-lifetime (hopefully) pandemic,” Max Slyusarchuk, CEO of A&D Mortgage, told Fortune. Meanwhile, “the last time we saw a 50%-plus increase in average wages was likely post-World War II, and I believe that took two-plus decades to realize.”
And then there’s the softening job market, in which job and wage growth is slowing, which Sean Roberts, CEO of offsite construction company Villa, said isn’t likely to change in the near- or medium- term. He also noted it would take “some massive economic shock” to get mortgage rates much lower than they are today, which is unlikely.
“The mortgage market is more disciplined and regulated, most homeowners have way more equity in their homes, there is a massive share of homes without mortgages on them at all, and a great many borrowers are locked in with low mortgage payments today,” Roberts said.
More than 30 million homeowners don’t have a mortgage right now, and the share of homeowners who don’t have a mortgage payment rose to 40% in 2023, up from 33% in 2010. That reflects a trend toward outright homeownership and conservative borrowing, according to a Goldman Sachs note from July.
“We see the housing market remaining relatively stuck without major progress being made on affordability until we see income growth rapidly accelerate—unlikely—, mortgage rates decline very materially—unlikely—, home prices come down materially—unlikely,” Roberts added.
In fact, Realtor.com forecasts only a 0.3% drop in mortgage rates, a 2.2% year-over-year increase in home prices, and only a 3.4% wage-growth increase.
And even if any of these factors were to come to fruition, we could end up with an extremely competitive housing market.
“We’re in a tough spot,” Slyusarchuk said. “The moment you make strides in any of these factors, what happens? More people are in the market buying and selling homes, which in turn increases the demand, which raises prices back up.”
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