Cooler-than-normal weather has largely ruled the D.C. area since August, and January — typically our coldest month — appears ready to stay on script. After our chilliest December in 15 years, we expect January to follow suit, averaging 1 to 3 degrees below normal compared with the month’s typical temperature of 37.5 degrees.
While December delivered the cold, the 1.5 inches of snow was a hair below the norm. January should be more productive, with 3 to 6 inches of snowfall possible — close to the long-term average of 4.9 inches.
Precipitation overall, however, remains a concern. January is shaping up to be drier than normal, potentially the seventh straight below-average month, with only 1.5 to 2.5 inches (of rain and melted snow) forecast versus a normal 2.93 inches, offering little relief from the ongoing drought.
What models forecast for the month
January appears poised to begin much like December ended, with colder-than-normal conditions. That said, computer models increasingly suggest a temporary thaw during the second week of the month, which could pull average temperatures for the first half of January closer to normal.
Models then signal a return to a colder pattern during the second half of the month, which would ultimately tilt January’s overall average back into below-normal territory. Forecast confidence, however, drops off notably beyond the two-week range.
Snowfall remains the trickiest element of the outlook. While subject to change, most models show little to no snow during the first half of January. For our forecast of 3 to 6 inches to verify, the colder pattern later in the month will also need to coincide with at least one organized storm system — something that remains uncertain at this lead time.
Precipitation overall is projected to run below normal, with most models leaning dry.
What’s typical in January and what’s more unusual
January is historically D.C.’s coldest month of the year and its second snowiest, trailing February by just 0.1 inches on average.
Temperatures through the month are relatively steady. Average daytime highs hover in the mid-40s, while nighttime lows typically range from 30 to 32 degrees.
The extremes, however, can be striking. Record lows have plunged to minus-14 degrees in the late 1800s and as recently as minus-4 degrees in 1994, when the daytime high reached only 8 degrees. On the other end of the spectrum, midwinter thaws are not uncommon: Calendar-day record highs reach the 70s on most January dates. Most remarkably, Jan. 26, 2024, hit 80 degrees, the warmest January temperature ever recorded in D.C.
January is also remembered for some of the region’s most significant snowstorms. Three of D.C.’s top six biggest snowstorms on record have occurred during the month:
- The 1922 “Knickerbocker” storm: 28.0 inches on Jan. 27-29.
- The 2016 “Snowzilla” blizzard: 17.8 inches Jan. 22-23.
- The blizzard of 1996: 17.1 inches on Jan. 6-8.
Recapping December
December capped off another cold stretch for the D.C. area, marking the fourth colder-than-normal month in the past five. The month averaged 37.3 degrees, more typical of January and 4.4 degrees below normal, with only eight days finishing above average.
It was the coldest December since 2010, when temperatures ran 7.1 degrees below normal. The chilliest day came Dec. 15, with a high of 29 degrees and a low of 18. The mildest weather arrived on Christmas Day, which peaked at 60 degrees after a low of 38.
Snowfall fell just shy of average, totaling 1.5 inches compared with a normal 1.7 inches. Still, it was the snowiest December since 2017 and snapped a streak of seven Decembers without at least an inch of snow.
Precipitation overall was scarce. December logged 1.77 inches, about 1.64 inches below normal, contributing to an annual precipitation deficit of 6.26 inches. That shortfall was driven largely by six consecutive drier-than-normal months to close out 2025.
Capital Weather Gang’s December outlook performed well. We forecast temperatures to average 2 to 4 degrees below normal, close to the observed 4.4-degree departure, and projected around 2 inches of snow, not far from the 1.5 inches that ultimately fell.
Matt Rogers and Ian Livingston contributed to this report.
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