Americans hoping for the chaos sparked by President Donald Trump’s trade war to settle next year are out of luck, according to economist Josh Lipsky, who on Tuesday predicted 2026 would closely mirror the president’s “Liberation Day” that sent markets into a nosedive.
“Some bank economists say the effects of the levies will ‘fade into the background’ during 2026,” Lipsky wrote in an op-ed published Tuesday in the Wall Street Journal. “Just wait.”
Lipsky, an ex-State Department official who serves as the senior director for the Atlantic Council GeoEconomics Center, noted that a number of the world’s largest banks appear to have grown confident that tariffs would be reduced next year.
To those banks and their economists, however, Lipsky warned that their optimism was grossly misguided.
“If only wishing made it so,” Lipsky wrote. “The second year of the second Trump administration is likely to look much like the first in trade policy.”
The legality of Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs is currently being weighed by the U.S. Supreme Court, which the president has warned would send the nation into “almost Third World status” if they ruled against him, but he appears prepared to press his trade war even if his tariffs are struck down.
“That’s why Mr. Trump and his trade team are ready,” Lipsky wrote. “Backup plans are being made, and in the immediate aftermath of such a decision from the court, expect to see a range of [alternative efforts from the Trump administration to reinstate its tariff policy].”
And, were the Supreme Court to strike down Trump’s tariff, Lipsky predicts widespread chaos.
“The result: Companies will ask for refunds they may not get, countries will unsuccessfully try to change their framework agreements, and the president will launch new tariff processes as he tries to rebuild his trade regime brick by brick,” he wrote. “That doesn’t sound like tariff relief but more uncertainty for businesses trying to plan inventories throughout the year.”
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