Tell us if you’ve heard this one before. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky walks into a meeting with President Donald Trump. Expectations are high for some kind of breakthrough that might bring the bloody war to a halt. Trump announces he has just gotten off the phone with Vladimir Putin ahead of the meeting, lowering expectations. The meeting ends inconclusively, with Trump promising to bring Zelensky and the Russian president together to negotiate in the near future.
The last time this happened was October, when Zelensky came to the Oval Office asking for Tomahawk missiles. Trump refused to provide them, instead demanding both sides hammer out a peace deal at a flashy summit in Budapest.
This weekend, the setting changed — Mar-a-Lago instead of the Oval — but the dynamic was familiar. Zelensky arrived with high hopes of getting Trump’s blessing on a peace plan Ukrainian and U.S. diplomats spent weeks hammering out. After nearly two hours of talks over lunch, plus the pre-meeting phone call with Putin, Trump and Zelensky emerged, hinting that a deal was tantalizingly close — “90 percent agreed,” Zelensky said.
Once again, the thorniest issues were punted.
The Budapest summit didn’t happen because Russia revealed it was not serious about negotiating, and there’s no reason to think that’s changed. At the same time, even if Trump’s peace push hits another dead end, it’s worth noting what has changed. Unlike in October, the West now has a clear sense of what a minimally acceptable peace would look like.
When Trump announced his initial 28-point plan in November, the outlines of which were negotiated by Steve Witkoff in consultation with Russia, Ukraine wisely embraced it. The 20-point version Zelensky’s team worked out with the U.S. team still caps Ukraine’s armed forces but at 800,000 rather than the initially proposed 600,000. It still promises presidential elections “as soon as possible” after a deal is signed and a ceasefire goes into effect — a key Russian demand — but drops the demand that Ukraine openly forswear its ambitions to eventually join NATO. It stipulates all sorts of efforts to help boost Ukraine’s economy and assist with reconstruction, from expedited time frames for accession to the European Union to free-trade agreements with the United States.
The two issues that remain unresolved are territorial concessions and security guarantees. On territory, the Ukrainian proposal is clever. Russia wants all of Donetsk and Luhansk, but Ukraine calls for both sides to withdraw from the front lines by an undetermined amount to establish “free economic zones” — a fudge that could pass muster with skeptical Ukrainian voters while playing to Trump’s pro-business sensibilities. It’s easy to imagine a final formula emerging that Trump could get behind.
Security guarantees are harder. Earlier reporting suggested Trump was offering NATO-like guarantees — U.S. intervention if Russia reinvades — and suggesting he might have Congress put that promise into a treaty. After the most recent summit, Trump seemed to shift the goalposts, sayingEurope will “take over a big part of it,” and the U.S. will assist. Perhaps such a deal is within reach.
The credibility of these offers remains questionable. If neither the Europeans nor the Americans have dared to enter into open conflict with Russia, would treaty obligations really change that calculus down the road? Maybe, but it’s less than a sure thing, which both Ukraine and Russia know. A reckless Putin might be tempted to test Western resolve, especially if he anticipates it will crumble.
The best approach, therefore, is to bolster shaky promises with ample provisions for arming Ukraine like a porcupine, helping it build “drone walls” and providing its army with sufficient artillery and medium-range missiles to deter future Russian revanchism.
On Monday, Moscow was already telegraphing its intention to scupper peace talks after claiming Ukraine lobbed drones at one of Putin’s residences — an attack Kyiv denies. If Putin balks again, it won’t be because Zelensky is refusing the terms for a just and lasting peace. The Ukrainians are paying an enormous price yet clearly willing to fight on.
The post The winding path to a good Ukraine deal appeared first on Washington Post.
