Midterm election chances for the Republican Party could dwindle for a surprising reason, a political analyst has predicted.
A quiet revolt against House Speaker Mike Johnson in the House of Representatives could have a longer-term impact Republican Party officials are not prepared for, according to political scientist Charlie Hunt in a new column for Salon, who argued that infighting within the GOP would hinder the party’s chances at the midterm elections next year.
“One final, unique aspect of this election cycle with major consequences is not an electoral but an institutional one,” wrote Hunt, a professor at Boise State University. “House conservatives are quietly revolting against Speaker Mike Johnson’s leadership style.”
“That members may be frustrated enough not just to retire but resign in advance, leaving their seats temporarily vacant, is a notable sign of dysfunction in the U.S. House,” Hunt continued. “This also could have a major impact on policy, given how slim the Republicans’ majority in the lower chamber is already.”
Departures from the GOP in the lead-up to the midterms could be another cause for concern in the party.
“As of now, two dozen Republican House members have either resigned from the House or announced their intent to not run for reelection in 2026,” Hunt wrote. “With only two exceptions – Republicans in 2018 and 2020 – this is more departures from either party at this point in the election calendar than any other cycle over the past 20 years.”
The political analyst also believes the resignation of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), a once-staunch Trump ally, could cause a domino effect of further resignations.
“There is also growing concern within the House Republican caucus that Greene’s announcement is a canary in the coal mine and that multiple resignations will follow,” Hunt wrote.
The infighting within the GOP has accelerated usual reasons a representative may leave or refuse re-election.
“Members of the House regularly retire to run for a Senate seat, such as, in this cycle, Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens of Michigan,” Hunt wrote. “Others run for executive offices, including governor, such as Republican Rep. Nancy Mace of South Carolina.”
“But some are leaving Congress due to growing frustration with the job and an inability to get things done,” he added. “Specifically, many retiring members cite growing dysfunction within their own party, or in Congress as a whole, as the reason they’re moving on.”
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