As Zohran Mamdani, the mayor-elect of New York City, prepares to go to battle in the State Capitol over his campaign promise to provide universal government-funded child care, he appears to have New Yorkers on his side.
A new poll released by Siena University on Tuesday found that nearly two in three voters across the state favor the new benefit and would support Mr. Mamdani’s plan to pay for it by increasing taxes on those earning more than $1 million a year.
The broad backing — spanning New York City, the suburbs and upstate — offered a sign that Mr. Mamdani could have a relatively strong hand to play after he takes office on Jan. 1, despite the program’s steep cost and complexity.
“There is no guarantee that just because something is popular it will be passed,” said Steven Greenberg, who oversees the poll. “But certainly being popular makes it easier.”
Gov. Kathy Hochul, a fellow Democrat, has already indicated that she is ready to work with Mr. Mamdani and the State Legislature on the issue. But providing care to cover children as young as 6 weeks could cost as much as $15 billion annually to fully implement statewide. Lawmakers are already grappling with a thorny set of questions over how to raise the funds at a time of fiscal constraint and how quickly to expand the offerings.
Ms. Hochul, for example, has made clear she opposes raising taxes on wealthy individuals (for which the poll found support), but has signaled she is open to raising the corporate tax rate or other taxes.
The Siena poll, taken between Dec. 8 to 12, found other reasons for optimism for Mr. Mamdani, a 34-year-old Democrat and democratic socialist, in the weeks before his inauguration. (The margin of error was 4.1 percentage points.)
Mr. Mamdani’s favorability ratings statewide and in New York City have markedly moved up since his victory over former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo and the Republican candidate, Curtis Sliwa. Statewide, 46 percent of voters have a favorable view of the mayor-elect compared with 31 percent who view him unfavorably. (Voters were split 40-40 in a Siena poll last month.)
The survey found that 61 percent of New York City residents have a favorable view of Mr. Mamdani. Just 23 percent viewed him unfavorably. But because city voters represented a smaller slice of the 801 registered voters surveyed statewide, the city-focused numbers could be less reliable.
The same sample of New York City voters appeared to be more skeptical of his proposal to make all buses free. The results echoed earlier polls, finding that half of city voters supported the idea, compared with 41 percent opposed.
As next year’s critical race for governor churns into motion, the survey found Ms. Hochul has relatively strong political footing — but also reasons for caution.
Nearly a year before Election Day, the incumbent Democrat leads her potential Republican opponents, Representative Elise Stefanik and the Nassau County executive, Bruce Blakeman, by 19 and 25 points, respectively. (Her lead in the Democratic primary against her lieutenant governor, Antonio Delgado, was roughly twice as large.)
Yet about as many voters view Ms. Hochul unfavorably as view her favorably, and half said they would prefer to elect someone else next year.
Ms. Stefanik appears to have the upper hand in the Republican primary race. Both she and Mr. Blakeman are allies of President Trump, but she is better known. The survey found that she had a broad lead among registered Republicans, but the sample size was relatively small.
Whichever Republican emerges is likely to run into stiff headwinds in a midterm year. Only about a third of New Yorkers approve of Mr. Trump’s job as president, and around 60 percent of voters statewide said his administration had gone “too far” deploying immigration agents in American cities, raising tariffs and prosecuting his political enemies.
Nicholas Fandos is a Times reporter covering New York politics and government.
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