Traders are already betting on whether embattled Jensen Huang, who admitted to an extramarital affair with a suspected Chinese spy, will stay on as head of Nvidia. Platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket were quick to offer wagers on Huang’s future since the CEO acknowledged his affair Sunday, and the early results are in his favor.
One event contract on Kalshi asking when Huang will leave as Nvidia’s CEO has drawn more than $266,000 in trading volume. Traders put the probability of his departure before January 2029 at 54%, compared with 52% before January 2028 and 33% before July 2027. A separate Kalshi market has drawn roughly $2,500 in trading volume, with traders putting the probability that Huang will testify before Congress by next January at 46%, rising to 79% by next July.
Polymarket has also listed a market on when Huang’s resignation or removal as CEO will be announced, drawing more than $305,000 in trading volume. Traders put the probability of an announcement by year-end at 16%, rising to 22% by the end of March 2027.
Meanwhile, Polymarket is also offering wagers about Huang’s personal life. There are currently around $159,000 of bets on the probability of a divorce by March 2027, with current odds at 23%.
The event contracts come a day after Nvidia announced an investigation into Huang, who acknowledged to the company’s board that he had an intimate relationship with a business executive whom U.S. intelligence officials reportedly identified as a Chinese spy. Nvidia shares have fallen nearly 10% since Monday morning.
With Huang’s future uncertain, traders have turned the corporate scandal into a running forecast of what could happen next, much as they do with other unfolding news.
These platforms allow users to trade on outcomes across sports, politics, and even the weather, with prices reflecting traders’ expectations of how events will unfold. They drew substantial attention during last week’s midterm elections, when traders favored Democrats to win control of both chambers of Congress.
The midterm results bolstered prediction markets’ reputation as forecasting tools. The platforms rose to prominence during the 2024 presidential election, when traders favored Donald Trump to win while polls showed a close race between him and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.
But the platforms’ forecasts have not always matched the results. While prediction markets broadly anticipated Democratic gains in the midterms, they favored Republicans in the Texas governor’s race and South Carolina’s Senate race, both of which Democrats ultimately won.
An earlier surprise in Brazil’s presidential election also raised questions about the platforms’ forecasting accuracy.
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