In today’s edition … It’s feeling a lot like Trump 1.0 (sung to the tune of “It’s Beginning to Look a Lot Like Christmas”) … We ask you about Ron DeSantis maybe running for president … but first …
Get ready for an even Trumpier House Republican conference
Democrats swept into control of the House and Senate, in part, because voters were furious that congressional Republicans have been too loyal to President Donald Trump.
Just you wait.
Here is the irony with a wave election: The Republicans most likely to get swept away were some of House Republicans’ more moderating forces. There weren’t many to begin with. But because they represented some of the country’s most evenly divided political districts, Tuesday’s swell quickly swept them away.
The members who remain come from some of the deepest red districts in the country and have long been among Trump’s most loyal soldiers in Congress. They generally don’t feel compelled to be bipartisan because the politics of their district is simple: Stay on the side where the base is.
Yes, a number of archconservative, Trump-loyal House members lost, among them Max Miller, the Ohio Republican who Trump supported amid his domestic abuse allegations; Richard Hudson, a North Carolina Republican who led the National Republican Congressional Committee under Trump; and Mike Carey, a North Carolina Republican Trump helped push through a primary in 2021.
But so too did Brian Fitzpatrick, a notably bipartisan Republican in the suburbs of Philadelphia; Jen Kiggans, a more moderate member in Virginia’s Tidewater region; and Zach Nunn, a Republican who represented a politically swingy part of Iowa.
There are, of course, exceptions to this rule from more battleground districts. Derrick Van Orden, a brash Trump loyalist from southwest Wisconsin, lost, as did Scott Perry, a Pennsylvania Republican often ranked near the bottom of bipartisan rankings.
(This is also somewhat true in the Senate, where Sen. Susan Collins, the only Republican incumbent running for reelection in a state Kamala Harris won in 2024, lost her bid for a sixth term. She often ranked near the top of bipartisan members of the upper chamber.)
And some of the new Republicans who did win on Tuesday night will be more than suitable replacements for the pro-Trump incumbents who lost. Take Republican Anthony Constantino, who won in the district left open when current Rep. Elise Stefanik opted to run for governor. Constantino is a pro-Trump rapper whose victory speech last week included him calling the “evil media… scumbags” and far worse, and a plea for Trump to consider pardoning Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs, who is currently serving a more than four-year prison sentence for prostitution-related charges.
So what does this mean for Republicans in the 120th Congress?
The first impact may come tomorrow, when incoming House Republicans are set to elect a new leader. Two men are seeking the post: Rep. Steve Scalise, a Louisiana Republican touting his leadership experience and ability to unify the conference, and Rep. Jim Jordan (Ohio), a more confrontational Republican touting his congressional oversight experience.
You can read more about that race here via my stellar colleague, Mariana Alfaro.
It’s anyone’s guess who will emerge from tomorrow’s meeting, but if Republicans are more dug in and want to fight — a la Trump — it’s easy to make a case for Jordan as the favorite.
Doug Heye, a longtime Republican operative, raised a good point: The wave was so big that it showed what can happen in a wave year in districts once assumed to be solidly red. Does that change how Republicans who once only thought about their base act in Congress?
“A lot of those who won won with a much smaller margin than they have in the past,” Heye observed, noting how Republicans in his home state were walloped. “Do they learn a lesson?”
That decision could impact what comes next. Republicans will have around 180 seats in Congress, giving Democrats what is expected to be their biggest majority in the chamber since the early 1990s. Some Republicans will reach across the aisle to work with Democrats. And a lot of that also rests with Democrats, who will need Republicans less but may want to work on bipartisan deals that Trump would be more willing to sign.
Then there is the Trump of it all. We are entering the twilight of his political career. His power, at last, logically, should be at a low point. But is it? Many of these Republicans have either come up in a political world dominated by Trump or adapted themselves to be loyal to the party’s standard-bearer for the last decade.
Can they change their ways? Do they even want to? That will be a key question next year.
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From across the newsroom
- After losing Congress, Republicans have one last shot to pass their agenda, from Theodoric Meyer and Jarrell Dillard.
- Top House Democrat says he’s a ‘hard yes’ on Pete Hegseth impeachment, from Liam Bowman.
- Potential Vance challengers smell blood in the water after brutal GOP losses, from Natalie Allison, Katherine Doyle, Nancy Cook and Isaac Arnsdorf.
- How a Mississippi election came down to the clerk’s office, from Robert Samuels.
- Ex-military chief Gadi Eisenkot, opponent of Netanyahu, tapped to form government, from Gerry Shih and Lior Soroka.
- Nvidia board to investigate CEO over relationship with suspected Chinese spy, from Gerrit De Vynck, Ian Duncan and Liam Bowman.
- When the great-grandson of an enslaved man beat the grandson of a president, from Maegan Vazquez.
- Historic voter turnout powered Democrats’ blue wave, from Lydia Sidhom, Luis Melgar and Laura Beveridge.
What I’m watching
Trump, in the wake of midterm losses, removed his longtime chief of staff, replaced her with his most controversial aide and offered his open press secretary role to the bombastic head of a fighting company, though he later said he was ‘only kidding.’
It is eerily reminiscent of Trump’s first term in office.
How Trump responds to the midterms will undoubtedly be worth watching. In the immediate aftermath of the losses, Trump denied any responsibility.
“I don’t like to consider it a defeat for me; I wasn’t on the ballot,” the president told Fox News last night, despite crisscrossing the country telling Republicans to vote as if he were on the ballot.
Trump was never going to be conciliatory. And his response is starkly at odds with his predecessors, who described their midterm defeats as “a shellacking” or “a thumpin’.”
Trump’s response was never going to be conciliatory. And he has shown throughout his decade in politics that his response to a loss is always to fight.
Enter: Stephen Miller.
My colleagues Natalie Allison, Isaac Arnsdorf, Nancy Cook and Katherine Doyle led the way in their reporting on Trump removing his long-serving top aide, Susie Wiles, and replacing her with Miller, the aide, as they write, who “has planned and directed some of the most controversial initiatives of Trump’s second term, including many of the administration’s immigration policies.”
Miller’s appointment says a lot about Trump’s mindset. He is someone who not only won’t restrain the president, but will likely push him to get even more confrontational. That will undoubtedly mean a more unpredictable White House that will likely be less willing to work with Democrats.
“Donald Trump learned nothing from his historic defeat,” likely soon-to-be Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer wrote on X.
It also seems like Trump is not done with departures.
He told CBS on Friday that he expects to fire more people from his team.
And The Washington Post’s great White House team reported that Wiles’s departure has been “seen by some close to the White House as in part a warning shot aimed at other advisers whom Wiles had brought into Trump’s orbit,” including James Blair, who left the White House to steer Trump’s political operation, and Chris LaCivita, who co-managed Trump’s 2024 campaign with Wiles.
In your local paper
Georgia Recorder: A blue wave swept over Georgia this month, giving Democrats a historic level of power.
Iowa Capital Dispatch: Republican power in a number of states was diminished this month, leading some states to consider special sessions during the so-called lame-duck legislative sessions to lock in Republican priorities. Iowa Republicans have declined to do that, despite the state electing a Democratic governor.
Juneau Empire (Alaska): Cuts to the social safety net over the last two years have caused some to lose their food benefits, putting pressure on local food banks — pressure that is likely only to grow around the holidays and winter.
Send a reply
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is planning another White House run, The Post’s Nancy Cook reported on Friday. The fight for the Republican nomination should be a free-for-all, especially if Vice President JD Vance has lost power. What do you think of DeSantis running? Who would you like to see run for the Republican nomination? Let me and your fellow Early Brief readers know at [email protected].
Thanks for reading. You can follow me on X at @merica.
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