It was the picture of idyllic New Zealand life — a family barbecue at a park overlooking Auckland’s harbor, with the scent of chicken wafting through the spring air.
But Ronnie Telea is considering leaving it all behind if the center-right coalition, led by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s National Party, wins another term after an election on Saturday.
Life has become harder as prices have climbed, he said. His family’s weekly grocery bill doubled from 200 to 400 New Zealand dollars, or about $110 to $220, over the past few years.
“That’s the only thing that matters to us, the cost of living,” said Mr. Telea, who is weighing a move to Samoa, where he has family ties. “I hope everything changes after the election.”
With a general election approaching on Nov. 7, the economy is at the forefront of voters’ minds. Food costs are increasing steadily, while gas prices surged 24.3 percent in the past year. The unemployment rate reached its highest level in more than a decade, 5.6 percent in June.
With narrowing options at home, tens of thousands have left the country of over five million, in search of better opportunities. Net migration loss of New Zealand citizens was 38,200 in the 12 months to August 2026, official data shows, and 39,900 in the same time period the year before. From 2014 to 2019, the average annual figure was 5,400.
Voters hope this election will herald a new start, but also seem unconvinced that the major parties can lead the way. Bryce Edwards, a political analyst, described the vote as the “discontent election.”
Both the governing National Party and the centre-left Labour Party — led by Chris Hipkins — have been polling at almost historic lows. The RNZ-Reid Research poll for the week ending Oct. 26 placed National at 24.8 percent and Labour at 30.6 percent. Other polls show National with a slight lead.
“There’s not a lot of enthusiasm for either of the two Chrises,” said Fiona Barker, associate professor of political science at Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington.
“People are frustrated at incrementalism among the major parties and looking for more radical agendas or bigger policy moves from the smaller parties,” she said.
With Labour and National neck and neck, whichever party wins will have to govern in a coalition with smaller parties that are carving out more of their votes.
Labour has pledged to make health care and transport more affordable, and to install a capital-gains tax on investment property sales. National has concentrated on the economy, promising no new taxes and a return to a budget surplus.
Mr. Luxon became prime minister three years ago in a coalition with the libertarian ACT party and the populist New Zealand First, forming the most right-wing government the country has seen in a generation. At the time, he promised a more stable future for the country.
That messaging appealed to New Zealanders who were disappointed that the previous Labour government, led by Jacinda Ardern, had not delivered on its promise of transformational change.
Mr. Luxon’s pledge has been stalled by global challenges and political infighting. Against the backdrop of rising living costs, there have been wide-scale public sector cuts. Relations between the government and Māori people, the Indigenous inhabitants of New Zealand, have worsened. If Mr. Luxon loses the election, it will be the first time a government has failed to win a second term in New Zealand since 1975.
A different way of doing politics
But there is change in the air.
A few weeks before the election, Qiulae Wong, leader of the centrist Opportunity Party, addressed a crowd in Christchurch, New Zealand’s second-largest city.
She asked how many were attending an Opportunity Party event for the first time. Almost every hand in the room at The Halswell pub went up. It was a striking show of engagement for a party that has never won a seat in Parliament despite contesting three elections.
This year, it could sail past the 5 percent threshold needed to enter Parliament and even emerge as a kingmaker, an RNZ-Reid Research poll suggests.
Opportunity has distinguished itself with unconventional proposals that focus on rising prices, including a universal basic income and a land value tax, while promising to break with entrenched political divisions.
Mark Chirnside, 36, who was in the audience, said he was considering voting for Opportunity because he hoped it could bring fresh policies into a coalition with either winning party.
“Part of my impulse to vote for them is simply to flip the table in the negotiations,” he said.
Ms. Wong said that shes heard comments from the public about the “lack of vision” among the dominant parties.
“We need to demonstrate a different way of doing politics,” she said in an interview.
New Zealand First and the leftist Green Party have also seen gains in recent RNZ polls.
The proportional voting system means that the winning party generally needs the support of smaller parties to form a government, in some cases giving the minor partners significant influence.
The Green Party, led by two women, Chlöe Swarbrick and Marama Davidson, is enjoying some of the strongest polling in its history — support is hovering about 14.5 percent — suggesting it could comfortably surpass its record showing at the 2023 election.
Renewed interest in minor parties signals a desire for significant change, said Max Rashbrooke, a senior research fellow in the School of Government at Victoria University of Wellington.
Voters are “dissatisfied with the status quo in New Zealand,” he said; but unlike in other countries, there had not been a decisive shift in either direction.
“They’re not collectively saying they want to break hard left or they want to break hard right,” he added.
Mr. Rashbrooke predicted that the winner would face challenges.
“They’re not going to get a very large majority,” he said. “They would be very foolish to think that they have and that they have won some mandate for sweeping change.”
Voters are desperate for the government to deliver results.
Abdul Latif Roshan, a math teacher who arrived from Afghanistan six years ago and now lives in Auckland, said the cost of living and job opportunities were at the forefront of his mind.
“I try to work harder, but there is no sufficient job opportunity,” he said. “I feel that life is getting harder and harder day by day.”
Mr. Roshan said he knew many people who were struggling to afford the basics. Although he did not say whom he would vote for, he hoped his vote would help bring relief to the affordability crisis.
“No time to be standing still”
One of the most important voting cohorts could be those overseas. An estimated one million New Zealanders live outside the country, close to one-fifth of the total population.
More than 132,000 of them have enrolled in this year’s election, in a significant increase compared with 2023, New Zealand’s chief electoral officer told Radio New Zealand.
Tracey Lee, who runs Every Kiwi Vote Counts, a nonpartisan initiative that encourages overseas voting, helped organize a town hall where the political leaders pitched to 120 citizens living abroad. It was the first time such an event had occurred.
Ms. Lee, who lives in London, said the high overseas enrollment could be driven by those who had been forced to leave because of economic conditions, or a desire to stay connected to home given the complex global landscape.
“We’ve got so much going on with unrest and climate and polarization,” she said. “I think everyone that’s out in the world that is a Kiwi is much more aware of our precariousness.”
“We’re all really aware that this is no time in the world to be standing still or not to be thinking about how we get to a better place,” she added.
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