Josh Turek, a Paralympian and Democratic state representative, will flip Iowa’s open Senate seat on Tuesday, according to a New York Times projection, overcoming Representative Ashley Hinson, a third-term Republican, in one of this year’s top battleground races.
Mr. Turek’s victory in a state that President Trump won three times — including by 13 percentage points in 2024 — delivers Democrats a seat viewed as crucial to the party’s fight for control of the Senate. It also signals a backlash to President Trump’s policies in America’s heartland.
Mr. Turek campaigned hard against the president’s tariffs and the war in Iran, argued that Ms. Hinson’s alignment with Mr. Trump was hurting Iowans and slammed her for supporting cuts to Medicaid and food stamps. He also cast her as out of touch, emphasizing her personal wealth and her votes in favor of tax breaks that benefited the upper class.
The political environment worked in Mr. Turek’s favor as farmers struggled with the high costs of fertilizer, diesel and gas because of Mr. Trump’s tariffs and the war.
Mr. Turek also eschewed his party’s less popular positions, saying in a campaign ad that he would work with “anyone,” including Mr. Trump, to secure the border and steering clear of culture war issues on the trail. He had a history of seeking out bipartisanship: He flipped his Republican-leaning Iowa House district by six votes in 2022 and is among the few Democrats elected in Western Iowa, a conservative area.
Ms. Hinson’s loss is a blow to the state’s Republican establishment. She entered the race with stronger name recognition than Mr. Turek, having worked as a television journalist in Cedar Rapids for a decade before becoming a state representative, then a congresswoman. She was viewed as a top recruit for Republicans.
Ms. Hinson sought to escape Mr. Trump’s flagging approval rating in Iowa by criticizing some of his executive orders, including a move to reduce tariffs on some foreign ground beef that Midwestern ranchers vehemently opposed. But she also kept his base close, rallying with Mr. Trump in Sioux City two weeks before the election. In the end, her longtime support for the president’s agenda was difficult for her to overcome.
Mr. Turek’s victory is likely to set off worries among Iowa Republicans ahead of the 2028 presidential election. Former President Barack Obama twice won the state before Mr. Trump flipped it in 2016.
Supporters said Mr. Turek’s life story inspired them. A two-time Paralympic gold medalist in basketball, he uses a wheelchair because he was born with spina bifida, a condition connected to his father’s exposure to Agent Orange in the Vietnam War.
When Mr. Turek is sworn in next year, he will succeed Senator Joni Ernst, a Republican who declined to seek re-election.
And he will inherit the seat once held by former Senator Tom Harkin, a Democrat whose legacy rests on his passage of the Americans With Disabilities Act, a landmark civil rights law for people with disabilities. At a campaign event two weeks ago, Mr. Turek said it would be “poetic” for him to win the seat.
“I’m only here because of the work of Senator Harkin,” he said.
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