In the run-up to Election Day, people have looked to polls for indications of how the contest for control of Congress may play out. But beyond the horse race, polls this fall have sent some clear messages about what voters care about.
This year, the Times/Siena Poll made nearly four million phone calls to 1.6 million voters, completing more than 28,000 interviews. We will find out on Tuesday how accurate the polls were by our team and by other pollsters across the country, but there are issues on which voters’ opinions are consistent enough that the lead extends well beyond the margin of error. Those issues help shed light on the current political environment and the motivations behind various midterm election decisions.
It’s the economy …
Polls have consistently shown that the top issue for voters this year is the economy. Every Times/Siena poll conducted in 2026 has found voters listing it as their single biggest driver.
The economy was also a top issue in the 2024 presidential election, but in a departure from recent years, voters are placing their trust in Democrats this time. Nationally, they favor Democrats to handle the economy over Republicans by eight percentage points. The shift is a reversal from just two years ago, when Donald J. Trump was favored by six points over Kamala Harris on this issue.
Across the seven states in our final battleground poll, six of which Mr. Trump won in 2024, voters were nine percentage points more likely to say they trusted Democrats to handle the cost of living. In Kansas and Texas, both states that the president won by double digits in 2024, Democrats also held a nine-point advantage on the issue.
Trump is deeply unpopular, but he has a reliable base.
Regardless of the outcome of the elections on Tuesday, one thing is clear: Voters are frustrated with Mr. Trump. The president’s disapproval rating stands at 60 percent nationally, according to the New York Times presidential approval tracker.
Mr. Trump’s approval rating for his handling of the economy has fallen to 35 percent, a drop from 43 percent in April last year. It is down among men and women; white, Black and Hispanic voters; Democrats, independents and, to a lesser extent, Republicans.
A vast majority of Republicans, however, remain loyal supporters. More than 80 percent of Republicans in the latest Times/Siena poll said they approved of the president’s job performance. Signs of a mass Republican exodus are not there.
Democrats are not especially popular, either.
Democrats are expected to have a strong year, but polls show that the party should not take that as a positive sign for its political brand.
Only 28 percent of voters said they were satisfied with the Democratic Party in a Times/Siena poll from last month, compared with 36 percent who said the same about the Republican Party.
The dynamic can be seen most acutely in Texas, where a CNN/SSRS poll found James Talarico, the Democratic nominee, leading the Senate race by six percentage points in a state where he was more popular than the party that nominated him. He had positive favorability (44 percent favorable, 43 percent unfavorable) among likely voters, while the Democratic Party in Texas was decidedly underwater (36 percent favorable, 56 percent unfavorable).
Immigration is declining as a priority.
For the last two years, the immigration crackdown has dominated the headlines at times. But only 10 percent of voters listed immigration as the top issue motivating their vote this year, down from 15 percent in 2024, and it is mostly Republicans who cite it as an issue.
Trust on the issue has also changed hands. Voters now give Democrats a four-point advantage on trust to handle immigration, after Mr. Trump had an 11-point edge on the issue in 2024.
The individual candidates matter.
Voters’ feelings about individual candidates, not just their political parties, have been shown to matter a great deal.
In South Carolina, a recent Times/Siena poll found the race effectively tied between Senator Darline Graham and Annie Andrews in a state that Mr. Trump won by about 18 percentage points in 2024. Candidate quality has seemed to play a major role in making the race so close.
The poll found that supporters of Ms. Andrews, the Democrat, said their top reasons for backing her were related to positive views of her policies or character (and negative views of Ms. Graham). For Ms. Graham, the Republican appointed to the seat after her brother, Lindsey Graham, died this year, voters’ primary reason for backing her was to help the Republican Party. Less than half as many cited her policies.
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