Democrats are now favored in enough House races to win the majority, according to the nonpartisan election prognosticator Cook Political Report, and could end up with up to 240 seats, their largest majority since 2009.
Cook on Friday moved 12 more House races in Democrats’ direction ahead of Tuesday’s elections.
Three races previously considered a “lean Republican” have been re-rated into “Toss Up,” including Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick’s in Pennsylvania and Republican Rep. Jeff Crank’s in Colorado. Three “likely Republican” seats are now “lean Republican” — including those of Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Indiana) and Rep. Darren Soto (D-Florida), whom Democrats believed to be among the most vulnerable in their party.
As The Post reported this week, an internal review of Cook ratings since 1984 found that 97 percent of its “Likely” ratings and 94 percent of its “Lean” ratings were ultimately correct. Its “Toss Up” ratings were more or less evenly split between parties, with a slight edge for Republicans.
Democrats need 218 seats for a majority, and Cook favors them in 222. An additional 18 races are toss-ups.
“If the bottom completely falls out for Republicans, Democrats could flip some seats in the Lean Republican and Likely Republican columns as well,” Erin Covey, Cook’s House analyst, wrote. “Republicans are particularly concerned about turnout in places like North Carolina and Pennsylvania, where Democrats are poised to win statewide races by comfortable margins.”
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