Democratic and independent voters could play the spoiler in a battle between two Republican incumbents vying for a solidly red congressional seat in Orange and Riverside counties.
Thanks to redistricting, Reps. Ken Calvert of Corona and Young Kim of Anaheim are pitted against one another in Congressional District 40, a newly redrawn territory that consolidates Republican voters in an area stretching from Mission Viejo, Rancho Santa Margarita and Anaheim Hills in Orange County to Woodcrest, Menifee and Murrieta in Riverside County.
Democratic leaders remade the district map as part of an overall effort to boost their party’s numbers in the U.S. House of Representatives after President Trump cajoled Texas into carving out districts more favorable to Republicans.
While considered deep red, District 40 still claims many Democratic and independent voters who could help sway the outcome.
“The question is, who are the Democrats going to support?” said Jon Fleischman, former executive director of the California Republican Party. He expects about half of the Democrats to not vote at all.
Self-identifying conservatives make up 33% of the district compared with liberals’ 27%, according to the Public Policy Institute of California. More independents lean Democratic (36%) than Republican (16%), according to the institute.
Democrats, so far, seem less than enthusiastic about their choices.
“I don’t care who wins in the 40th,” said Orange County Democratic Party Chair Florice Hoffman, who skipped voting in the race. “They’re both two bad choices, so I will not spend any time telling Democrats to go out to vote for either one of them.”
Kim may cast herself as a collaborative politician but if you look at her record, “she’s not any better than Ken Calvert. They both ran as 100% Trump — and really that’s how she votes,” said Hoffman, who lives in Orange.
Calvert topped the June primary, earning 35% to Kim’s 21%. Democrat Esther Kim-Varet came in third with 17%, followed by several Democrats and an independent.
Calvert, 73, retained about half of his constituents in the redrawn district. Kim, 64, kept about a third of hers.
Americans 4 Security PAC, which has spent more than $6 million backing Calvert, sent out fliers highlighting Trump and Kim’s ties, the Orange County Register reported. One mailer quoted Trump thanking Kim, while another announced: “Young Kim 100% pro-Trump.”
Political experts said these mail pieces are intended to dissuade Democrats from backing her.
With polls showing Democrats likely to take back the House, Los Angeles political consultant Jorge Flores said Kim’s reputation for working with others could help her among Democrats and independents deciding between two conservatives.
“Whether she convinces voters that she’s actually the right choice, I think it’s a steeper climb,” said Flores, who worked with the independent candidate in the primary.
The Democratic Party branches in Orange and Riverside counties make no mention of the race in their official endorsement guides.
Kim and Calvert are similar when it comes to backing Republican policies, Fleischman said, noting that both support Trump and have voted together about 95% of the time.
He described Young as someone who tries “to put together coalitions” while Calvert is “set in his ways.”
“Young probably has a better case to make to [Democrats], but it’s just too hard to tell,” said Fleischman.
A general election with two Republicans facing each other in a House seat is highly unusual. It’s a product of the state’s “jungle primary,” which advances the top two candidates, regardless of party, and Proposition 50, the voter-approved ballot measure that allowed the new congressional district lines.
Elected in 1992, Calvert is the longest-serving member of California’s Republican delegation in Congress.
Kim, known as a prolific fundraiser, was elected in 2020. She’s raised $10 million in direct donations, compared with Calvert’s $7 million.
Calvert sits on the House Appropriations Committee, where he chairs the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee. The Americans 4 Security PAC attacking Kim counts two executives from Miami-based Palantir, whose software is used by the U.S. military, among its donors.
Before the primary, Kim stripped her campaign website of “America first” branding and references to Trump.
Chris Pack, a Kim spokesperson, said last month that she was “proud of her work with President Trump to deliver results for Southern California,” arguing the campaign’s messaging is focused on Calvert’s record.
In a social media post this week, Kim hammered Calvert as a career politician. She supports legislation banning members of Congress from trading stocks, wants to enact term limits and portrays herself as a pragmatist.
“What kind of Republican do you want representing you?” Kim said in a recent NBC4 interview.
Calvert’s campaign, meanwhile, labels Kim a RINO, or Republican in name only, a pejorative used to describe a disloyal conservative. She co-sponsored legislation to censure Trump after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, although Democrats widely viewed the move as a slap on the wrist.
Calvert’s campaign has pointed to Kim’s 2021 vote with Democrats to repeal a Trump-era rule that rolled back methane-emissions regulations.
Calvert, who appeared this week at a rally in Murrieta alongside Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton and Assemblymember Carl DeMaio (R-San Diego), labels himself a consistent conservative.
“People know exactly where I’m at,” he recently told Spectrum News. “I haven’t changed a bit in the 30 years, and so I’ll continue to give people the kind of common sense governance that they deserve.”
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