In today’s edition … Democrats, still struggling with big money donors, are dominating grassroots fundraising … You tell us what is getting you to the polls this year … but first …
A warning sign for Trump
Warning signs for President Donald Trump and Republicans abound in recent election results worldwide, where fervent anti-corruption, anti-incumbent sentiment has taken hold — and could hit the United States next week. If it does, that sentiment could help explain sweeping changes in Congress.
In Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, the nation’s long-serving strongman leader, conceded defeat over the weekend amid a contentious, high-turnout election centered on accusations that the government was corrupt and dismantling democracy.
In Brazil, presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro — the son of disgraced former president Jair Bolsonaro, who styled himself the Trump of the Tropics — lost his bid for president in a corruption-focused election this week. The results keep Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in office in what many are calling a stunning political comeback.
And in Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may hold on to power, with his bloc on track to win 53 parliamentary seats to his challengers’ 48. It’s unclear whether Netanyahu can assemble a governing majority. Arab-led parties are set to win an unprecedented 19 seats after a historic wave of Palestinian citizens of Israel turned out in a stunning rebuke against the status quo.
Global election trends are not unheard of.
After the 2024 election, many Democrats looked toward international election results to explain why voters rejected President Joe Biden and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris. “The ‘super year’ of elections has been super bad for incumbents as voters punish them in droves,” read an Associated Press headline.
As the piece noted, the issues driving anti-incumbent anger varied worldwide, but a post-covid malaise led voters to blame parties in power for the struggle to return to normal as prices stayed high.
Of course, drawing lessons from international elections and trying to apply them to American elections carries risks. But a clear trend is playing out worldwide right now: Voters are angry about perceived government corruption and the incumbents in power, and they’re carrying that anger to the ballot box.
“There is a worldwide focus on and frustration with corruption,” said Daniel Shapiro, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel and currently a distinguished fellow with the Atlantic Council think tank. “But it is exacerbated and made more salient because of the economic crisis.”
Democrats have worked to cast Trump and congressional Republicans as corrupt on the campaign trail this year, and have argued that this alleged corruption is partially responsible for high prices. (Trump has, of course, said there is nothing untoward about his finances.)
It’s a tactic that Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser, said first set in around Hungary’s elections earlier this year, when Viktor Orban’s autocratic rule came to an end, despite Vice President JD Vance campaigning for him in Budapest. Péter Magyar, Orban’s opponent and Hungary’s new prime minister, promised to restore democratic institutions and end the alleged corruption under a leader who has grown close with Trump and American conservatives.
“What he was able to do was connect corruption to people’s economic pain,” said Sullivan, now a professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School. “The shift this year has been to tie corruption to costs and to the ways in which people feel they can’t get ahead economically. There is a trend internationally, one that is very much now being noticed and then adapted to American political campaigns.”
While these trends have limits, Sullivan said Trump is unlike any modern American president, making currents from Europe and Latin America more relevant.
“Donald Trump represents a certain kind of strongman that has similar iterations in other places — an Orban, a Bolsonaro, a Netanyahu,” he said. “So the playbooks that get run against those leaders in those countries are of interest to people running against the leader in this country.”
Defend the Vote, a progressive PAC focused on protecting voting access, has driven much of this messaging tying corruption to costs, and Brian Lemek, the group’s president, said international trends validate this push.
“Corruption doesn’t have a nationality. When people are struggling with the cost of living and, at the same time, see a corrupt political system serving the powerful rather than regular people, those frustrations can reinforce each other,” Lemek said. “Versions of this dynamic have played out in countries around the world, and it’s likely a warning sign for Trump and Republicans in the U.S.”
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From across the newsroom
- Report on recruiting a ‘spoiler’ shakes up Senate race in Alaska, from Rachel Lerman.
- Inside the breakdown of Trump’s $1.5 trillion Pentagon plan, from Noah Robertson.
- Few are as loved or hated as streamer Hasan Piker — if you’ve heard of him, from Olivia George.
- Dolores Huerta, resolute champion of workers’ rights, dies at 96, from Harrison Smith and Patricia Sullivan.
What I’m watching
While Democrats have struggled for months to raise money from wealthy donors, the party’s candidates have absolutely dominated small-dollar donations this cycle.
That is the takeaway from a piece I published with Lydia Sidhom yesterday afternoon that documents how Democratic campaigns have raised four times as much as Republicans from small-dollar donors ahead of next week’s midterm elections.
Democratic House and Senate campaigns reported about $574 million from people who cumulatively gave less than $200, according to federal fundraising data, compared with $143 million reported by similar Republican committees. Small-dollar contributions account for 31 percent of money sent to Democratic campaigns, compared with 16 percent of Republicans.
The disparity underscores how Democrats — who criticize the political influence of the rich — rely on small contributions to power their campaigns, while Republicans depend on wealthy donors and outside groups that can receive large gifts.
But it also raises questions about whether Democrats can succeed by relying solely on grassroots fundraising, or whether they need to do more to attract well-heeled donors who can give massive sums to outside organizations not subject to the same donation rules as campaigns.
“Anyone who said there is no tension there would be full of it,” said Greg Krieg, a Democratic operative who argued the party has two options: either try to get back into the good graces of the wealthy or press their advantage with a populist message that calls out the wealth disparity. “Neither one is perfect, but I think it has become clear to everybody that whatever the downside is to alienating billionaires, it is surpassed by the support you get from the grassroots.”
The question is particularly pertinent as Democrats look at how a few billionaires have funded huge portions of Republican election programs this year. Three of the four individual donors who have given more than $100 million this midterm cycle mainly back Republican candidates. Elon Musk alone has given $446 million to Republican-aligned PACs, making him the largest individual political donor in modern American history.
Rob Flaherty, a longtime Democratic operative focused on digital communications, said Democrats’ success with grassroots donors this cycle speaks volumes about how eager the party’s base is to vote.
But, he argued, it also may be good politics to allow Republicans to rely on the uber-wealthy.
“The more Republican advantages of billionaires go up, the more grassroots donors feel like they are compelled to give,” he said. “It is a bit of an arms race between Elon Musk and your aunt who is watching Rachel Maddow.”
You can read the full report here.
In your local paper
Detroit News: The man engaged to be married to Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens plans to vote for Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers in Michigan. Stevens narrowly lost to Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed in the Democratic primary earlier this year.
Minnesota Reformer: Colleges and universities nationwide have long relied on international students to balance the books. But Trump’s immigration policies have reduced interest from foreign students, affecting schools in Minnesota and elsewhere.
Kentucky Lantern: Hasan Piker, the much-discussed streamer who has made a string of controversial comments, has filed a defamation lawsuit against conservative commentator Scott Jennings, reportedly over claims that Jennings told his audience that Piker had called for Black voters to be lynched.
Mansion Global: Hugh Grant’s on-screen blue-doored home in “Notting Hill” is for sale. Anyone have £7.5 million lying around?
From you
We asked why you’re voting this year, and you’re all casting ballots for different reasons — from opposition to Trump to the cost of everyday goods to deep frustration with this political moment.
“This year I will vote for anything and anybody that will oppose Donald Trump and his agenda,” wrote Rich Lando. “I think that when we look back at his administration(s) 20 years from now, we will look at it as the most corrupt in our history and he will be judged as the worst president we have ever had.”
The most common response was opposition to the war in Iran and rising costs, with people like Robert Sekerka embodying that frustration.
Others said they voted to stop the rise of money in politics.
“Billionaires are determining our elections. Politicians are not obligated to represent their constituents they are obligated to represent the people that funded their election and will find their re-election,” wrote Mark Putnam. “Our election process is out of control, and Congress needs to take it back.”
And a common response was curbing corruption, a nod to our insights above.
“I am voting against corruption in government,” wrote Randy Kiser, accusing Trump and Republicans in Congress of being corrupt. “I look forward to the day when I can read the news without anger and escalating blood pressure.”
And even more responses were personal.
“Not really an issue but I’m most concerned about character and compassion in a candidate,” wrote Harley Everett.
“It was about affordability but it has become about ethics and extremism-candidates who have no moral boundaries,” added Susan Nierenberg.
Send a reply
The way people use AI chatbots to ask questions about the election got us thinking: What do you use to research elections? Do you simply read the news? Do you use AI chatbots? Do you ask your friends questions? Let us know what sources you use to decide who to vote for. Let me and your fellow Early Brief readers know at [email protected].
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