President Donald Trump’s handpicked chairman of the Republican National Committee predicted a dismal outcome for the GOP in next year’s midterm elections.
RNC chairman Joe Gruters tried to set expectations for 2026 as low as possible, according to The Bulwark’s Andrew Egger, after Democrats overperformed in special elections across the country and Republican confidence begins to droop.
“It’s not a secret, there’s no sugarcoating it,” Gruters told Egger. “It’s a pending, looming disaster heading our way … We are facing almost certain defeat.”
“The chances are Republicans will go down and will go down hard,” he added. “This is an absolute disaster. No matter what party is in power, they usually get crushed in the midterms.”
However, Egger clarified that the RNC chairman was not throwing Trump under the bus, but Republican operatives in some swing states pushed the president in front of the bus.
“His message sucks, it’s absolute trash,” said one veteran strategist. “‘Affordability is a Democrat hoax’??? Give me a break. It’s the non-college-educated version of the Biden message, and we saw how well that worked. . . . Nobody believes the economy and particularly affordability is getting better.”
A Georgia-based Republican agreed and tied Trump’s messaging on that topic to this week’s shock Democratic victory in a special election in a normally safe Republican state House district.
“It’s landing like doo doo,” that Republican said.
A third GOP strategist told Egger that Trump’s demand for loyalty will hurt Republicans next year.
“There have been past White Houses where it was okay to have some distance between yourself and the president,” he said. “A candidate who says, ‘Yeah, maybe tariffs aren’t a great idea because of what they’re doing to prices,’ or whatever the case may be . . . That is clearly not the case with this administration.”
Trump visited Pennsylvania this week for the first stop in a planned nationwide tour to reassure Americans about his economic strategy, but Republicans weren’t impressed with his message.
“This isn’t going to get better unless he either, one, shuts off the tariffs and starts a real economic turnaround, or two — well, I don’t know what two is,” the first strategist said. “I think the GOP is looking at a very rough midterm.”
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