A geopolitical expert warned Sunday that President Donald Trump is facing a trap in Iran, one that created one of the most dangerous windows in the war’s timeline.
Robert Pape, a political scientist who teaches at the University of Chicago, wrote in a new Substack essay that Iran’s pathway to winning the war against the U.S. is by creating excruciating economic pressure on the Trump administration. Pape predicted that the Trump administration is likely to respond to such pressure with a limited ground operation in Iran after the midterms are over. This could cause a spiral of repeating escalations that drag the U.S. further into the war.
“This is the Escalation Trap in its purest form,” Pape wrote.
Pape argued that the two months after the midterm elections in November will be the “most dangerous” part of the war. For starters, Pape noted that the lame-duck Congress will have little incentive to prevent Trump from acting on his worst impulses, especially if the Democrats trounce Republicans, as some polls have suggested.
He also noted that Trump will have the fewest domestic constraints of his second term after the midterms, which could cause Trump to deal with the ongoing economic pressure in a concerning way.
“Pressure on Hormuz and Gulf oil leaves Washington two choices: make the sweeping concessions an increasingly ambitious Iran demands, which carry a heavy price at home, or climb the next rung,” Pape wrote.
The stakes are even greater because of the looming elections in Israel, he added. There is a chance Netanyahu becomes a “caretaker” Prime Minister after the election, which could cause him to act erratically as well.
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