Rising costs are prompting shoppers to opt for store-brand coffee, but brand loyalty is keeping Starbucks ahead in grocery sales for now.
An InMarket report, released on Thursday, shows that consumers are increasingly favoring private-label coffees. The average share of private label spend rose from 19% in Q1 to 22% in Q3 this year, with store brand coffee purchases ranking #1 at club stores such as Costco and Sam’s Club.
However, Starbucks took the top spot at grocery and mass stores, such as Walmart and Target, and ranked #2 at club and dollar stores, showing that consumers still prefer their name-brand coffee when they can afford to splurge.
Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the average price for a pound of coffee beans in September had increased by over 41% year-over-year — from $6.47 to $9.13 — a surge the country hasn’t seen in decades.
A pound of Starbucks coffee, in comparison, generally costs between $12 and $18 — depending on the blend, whether it’s on sale, and the location from which you’re purchasing it.
“As private label continues to gain traction heading into 2026, it will be critical for name brands to maintain targeted marketing and loyalty strategies to defend share and reinforce consumer preference,” reads the InMarket report.
Coffee prices have also risen at restaurants. The average cost of a regular cup increased from $3.46 to $3.57 in the year ending October 2025, according to price data tracked by the menu software company Toast.
An affordability bellwether
“Coffee is once again a leading indicator of sticky inflation,” Francisco Martin-Rayo, CEO and cofounder at Helios AI, an agritech startup that models food supply chain risks and agricultural prices, told Business Insider.
Helios models indicate that rainfall in Brazil’s Minas Gerais region is running roughly 25% below seasonal norms, compounding the effects of a prolonged drought on the industry. Add to that the risk of new US tariffs on Colombian imports, which President Donald Trump teased in October — at a moment when Colombia supplies nearly 10 % of America’s beans — and “you get a perfect storm,” Martin-Rayo said.
“Retail prices could climb another 12 to 18% this quarter alone,” Martin-Rayo said. “That kind of sustained pressure doesn’t just hit café menus — it feeds directly into consumer price index month after month.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last month that the White House plans to take action to lower the prices of coffee and produce, as concerns around affordability continue to plague the Trump administration.
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