Kansas has the potential to be one of the biggest surprises of these midterm elections: Democrats have a chance to win a Senate race in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate in nearly a century.
Polls show it’s very close. President Donald Trump — facing a potential litany of losses for his party across the country — visited the state Monday to rally his voters. “When you see burning steeples and raging fires in France,” he said, “just remember that is what the radical Democrats want to do in America.”
Kansas is still a very Republican state, which is why a Democratic win in Kansas would be one of the biggest upsets of the midterm elections. Here’s more about why it’s so competitive and what could happen.
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Kansas wasn’t originally on Democrats’ list of states to target
Of the red states Democrats need to win to take back the Senate in November, Michigan, Ohio, Texas and Iowa are all more likely to be won by Democrats than Kansas.
But Kansas is a huge farming state, and the price of diesel has increased nearly 80 percent since last year, in large part because of Trump’s tariffs and his unpopular Iran war.
Kansas ranchers are also mad about Trump allowing imported beef into grocery stores, and Kansas farmers are struggling with Trump’s immigration raids that have swept away workers. “There’s a lot of frustration and anger,” Glenn Brunkow, the president of the Kansas Farm Bureau, told Politico.
“The Republicans haven’t done the Midwest any favors with that,” lifelong Kansas Republican Debbie Geneva told the Associated Press of Trump’s trade policies.
Outside of agriculture, high gas prices are a top concern of independent voters. And by some estimates, those voters make up almost a third of the state.
Almost half of Americans say they are worse off financially now than when Trump took office a year ago, a new Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll of the entire country finds. That’s the highest percentage the poll has captured of any president on that question since The Post began asking it in 1968.
All of this seems to have translated into enthusiasm among Democrats — and potential apathy from Republicans. A recent New York Times/Siena poll found 49 percent of likely voters in Kansas say they lean toward the Democratic Party compared with 34 percent who say they lean toward the Republican Party.
Democrats have a unique candidate to try to take advantage of this moment
Adam Hamilton is a fifth-generation Kansan and the founder of one of the largest churches in the state. Not unlike Democrat James Talarico in Texas, he is weaving in faith and bipartisanship to try to appeal to Republican voters.
“Do President Trump and Vice President Vance’s policies reflect the Jesus of the gospels?” Hamilton sad to CNN. “And the answer is no.”
Kansas Democrats say Hamilton’s experience as a pastor also demonstrates he can build a community and fundraise from it.
His Republican opponent, Sen. Roger Marshall, has struggled with voters. His 2020 election was also close. He’s since spent six years aligning himself with Trump’s policies.
Marshall recently said he wants the Iran war to end quickly and has tried to pivot away from the cost of living as an issue. “The cost of gas is a concern for everybody,” he told to the Topeka-Capital Journal, “but what I’m hearing now is that national security is important; a secure border, keeping families safe is important.”
He predicted that Kansas voters will realize Republicans are the party that will protect traditional family values. “There are things more important than money,” he said.
Two former Republican governors recently endorsed Hamilton, saying they were frustrated with Marshall’s acquiescence to Trump.
Marshall has faced scrutiny for his OB-GYN practice suing hundreds of patients over unpaid medical debt, some of whom were arrested, including a pregnant mother with a toddler. (He says he was following standard practice.)
Republicans say that the polls are overestimating Democratic enthusiasm and that with enough money, Marshall will be fine. Tens of millions of dollars have poured into the state for attack ads over Hamilton’s sermons as Republicans try to cast him as secretly far-left. Marshall has accused Hamilton of protecting a child sexual predator who volunteered at Hamilton’s church more than two decades ago. Hamilton has acknowledged police could have been notified of allegations sooner but said Marshall is misrepresenting the church’s response.
Kansas is still a deeply Republican state, and Hamilton will need significant support from Democrats, independents and Republicans to win.
Kansas has elected a Democrat statewide: its current governor. With a big enough wave, some Kansas Democrats predict the governor’s mansion could stay Democratic and the attorney’s general office could flip to Democrat.
Amber Phillips writes The 5-Minute Fix newsletter, a quick analysis of the day’s biggest political news. Send her an email here, or ask a question that could be featured in an upcoming newsletter.
The post Here’s what’s making the Kansas Senate race so competitive appeared first on Washington Post.
