Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor has emerged as the rare non-quarterback contender for the NFL’s most valuable player award. Through 10 games, Taylor has rushed for 1,139 yards and 15 touchdowns and added 260 receiving yards with two more scores. That puts him on pace for 2,378 scrimmage yards and 29 total touchdowns, which would rank fifth and second all time, respectively — an unprecedented combination in league history.
Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor has emerged as the rare non-quarterback contender for the NFL’s most valuable player award. Through 10 games, Taylor has rushed for 1,139 yards and 15 touchdowns and added 260 receiving yards with two more scores. That puts him on pace for 2,378 scrimmage yards and 29 total touchdowns, which would rank fifth and second all time, respectively — an unprecedented combination in league history.
FanDuel lists Taylor with the third-best MVP odds, behind only quarterbacks Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford, making him the lone non-QB among the top contenders.
However, he should still be considered a long shot to win the award. There is a reason there hasn’t been a non-QB winner since Vikings running back Adrian Peterson in 2012. Quarterbacks are far and away the most influential position in the sport, and the award’s emphasis on value makes it nearly impossible for players at other positions to break through. Not even Eagles running back Saquon Barkley’s phenomenal campaign last year was enough; he finished third in the voting. Then-Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp captured the receiving triple crown in 2021, becoming the first player since 2005 to lead the NFL in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns — and also finished third in the voting that year. Taylor should expect to suffer a similar fate.
But the more interesting question, to me, is not whether Taylor will win, but whether he deserves to win. Unfortunately for the Colts’ star, a review of the advanced metrics reveals that question is a resounding “No.” Here’s why.
He’s not even the most valuable player on his own team.
Part of the narrative behind Taylor’s MVP case is that he’s responsible for much of the Colts’ offensive success. While it’s certainly true that he deserves a lot of credit, that narrative is undervaluing the production of quarterback Daniel Jones, who has transformed himself into a legitimate MVP candidate in his own right under Colts Coach Shane Steichen.
Jones leads the NFL with 2,659 passing yards and is on pace for career highs in touchdowns and efficiency. He’s averaging 0.15 expected points added per dropback, better than stars Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts, and his completion rate is 6 percentage points higher than expected per data from NFL NextGen stats, the second-best mark in the league. His ESPN Total Quarterback Rating (66.8) ranks ninth, showing that his production isn’t just about yardage, but consistent, high-level play.
There remains skepticism about Jones’s ability to keep up this pace, particularly given how poorly his tenure as the Giants’ starting quarterback ended. But his play to this point in the season has been at an MVP-level — and he’s been more valuable than Taylor.
He’s not even the most valuable non-QB in the NFL.
Using expected points added (EPA), a metric that estimates how much a team’s chance of scoring increases or decreases based on the play’s outcome, Taylor’s MVP case becomes even weaker. That’s because he ranks behind a handful of non-QBs, most notably a pair of wide receivers in the Rams’ Puka Nacua (the focal point of perhaps the NFL’s most potent offense) and the Seahawks’ Jaxon Smith-Njigba (far and away the league leader with 1,041 receiving yards).
EPA is not a perfect measure of a player’s value, but it is significant nonetheless. The eventual MVP also led the league or finished second in expected points added 17 times over the past 23 years, per TruMedia.
To be clear, Taylor’s placement in the rankings isn’t his fault, but rather a reflection of positional value. After all, it is easier for wide receivers to be credited with high-impact plays than running backs. The data shows that running backs consistently lose expected points on average with each carry, whereas passing plays tend to increase a team’s expected points. Another way this is reflected is in player salaries, with top wide receivers earning some of the highest salaries among non-QBs in the sport, while running back remains one of the lowest-paid positions.
None of this is to take away from what has been an extremely impressive season for Taylor so far. But it is a very tall order for a running back to truly make a claim as the NFL’s most valuable player — and to this point, Taylor simply doesn’t measure up.
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