Republicans have an enormous financial edge in this year’s midterms. But with two weeks until the election, it is now clear that their spending advantage is overwhelmingly playing out only in the advertising battle for the Senate — not the House.
In the seven Senate races that the Cook Political Report rated as tossups, Republicans are outspending Democrats on advertising by $947 million to $625 million. That is a breathtaking advantage of more than $320 million in the key races that could determine which party wins control of the Senate, according to a tally by AdImpact of ads that have been already been shown and future reservations.
It is a very different story in the House, though. Republicans still have an advertising advantage in the closest House races, but it is relatively narrow — just a $14 million edge across the 21 races rated as tossups.
There are a number of explanations for the discrepancy.
Senate races generally attract more money and attention than congressional contests. Elon Musk’s enormous spending on the Texas Senate race is also a factor: He gave nearly $170 million to super PACs backing Ken Paxton, the Republican Senate nominee there — a huge injection of cash from one person.
But it is also appears to be an indication that both parties — and their donors — are viewing it as increasingly unlikely that Republicans will be able to hold onto their House majority. The battle to win control of the Senate, though, remains on a knife’s edge. Republican donors are accordingly spending big in key Senate races.
In six of the seven tossup Senate races, Republican ad spending is far outstripping Democrats’. The biggest gap is in Texas ($141 million), but there are chasms also in Ohio (nearly $90 million), Maine (nearly $32 million) and Michigan ($33 million).
Only in Kansas — where Republicans are engaged in a late rescue mission — is the spending even close. There, Democrats had an edge of less than $2 million.
In the House, there is not such a clear-cut edge for Republicans. Across the 21 tossup districts, Republicans are currently set to spend more on 10 seats while Democrats are set to spend more on 11.
It is worth noting that in recent years, Democrats have lapped Republicans in House spending. In President Trump’s first midterm election, in 2018, G.O.P. strategists spoke about being washed away in a “green wave” as much as a blue one.
“This cycle, that money won’t save them,” said Mike Marinella, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “Republicans have the money, the map and the message.”
Republicans do have a roughly $30 million spending edge in the dozen seats that are leaning Democratic — but Democrats have a narrow edge of less than $1 million in the 13 seats that are currently rated as leaning Republican.
“We came into this cycle preparing for the worst-case scenario in Republican spending, and planned accordingly,” said CJ Warnke, a spokesman for the House Majority PAC, the biggest super PAC for House Democrats. “While we’re fighting deep into Trump territory, the G.O.P. spending advantage will ultimately leave some winnable seats on the table.”
These ratings are fluid. Cook has moved numerous races into the Democratic direction in recent weeks.
Dollars spent do not directly equal ads aired. Candidates are entitled to cheaper TV rates than super PACs are under federal law. Democrats are generally spending more on ads at that cheaper rate because Democratic candidates for both the House and the Senate are raising far more than Republican candidates. Republican groups, though, have a big advantage over Democratic ones, led by Mr. Trump’s allied super PACs and Mr. Musk’s wallet.
Every major Senate Democratic candidate is crushing their Republican counterparts in fund-raising.
And Democratic House members and challengers out-raised their Republican opponents in 38 of the 42 most competitive contests, according to a New York Times analysis of Federal Election Commission filings in the most recent quarter — many by millions of dollars.
Julie Merz, the executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, predicted that Democrats would win the majority, saying in a statement that they were working to “maximize every dollar and compete with Republicans and their dark-money backers.”
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