EDMONTON, Canada — For decades, Alberta separatism was a fringe cause. On Monday, voters in Canada’s oil heartland will decide whether to take the first step toward a referendum on leaving the country.
Alberta, home to the world’s fourth-largest proven oil reserves, is not voting to leave Canada on Oct. 19. Instead, voters will decide whether the province should begin the legal process toward a future referendum on separation.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who called the vote but supports remaining in Canada, has said that backing for starting the separation process, which was around 23% in a recent poll, is “still too high for my liking.”
The province has long feuded with the central government over oil and federal power. Liberal Prime Ministers Pierre Trudeau and, decades later, his son Justin became deeply unpopular in the province over energy policy.
Justin Trudeau’s government imposed a national carbon tax and other climate measures that Alberta leaders said hurt its oil industry. Yet separatist parties typically drew only 1% or 2% of the vote, former Alberta Premier Jason Kenney said.
Then came the COVID-19 pandemic and the Freedom Convoy, which paralyzed parts of Ottawa, the Canadian capital, and blocked major Canada-U.S. border crossings.
“They needed a new cause,” Kenney told the Associated Press. “And it naturally morphed into separatism.”
Jeff Rath, a leader of the independence movement, said federal rules preventing unvaccinated Canadians from flying were his breaking point.
“If Trudeau won’t let me leave Alberta, I’m just going to pick up my whole province and go,” Rath recalled telling a friend. “COVID was really the straw that broke the camel’s back.”
“A lot of people were radicalized by the convoy,” he said.
The 2022 Freedom Convoy began over vaccine requirements for cross-border truckers but grew into a broader revolt against pandemic restrictions.
Kenney said people mobilized over anger at globalization, vaccines and pandemic restrictions, while social media allowed previously isolated activists to find one another and organize.
“They found each other and they found a cause,” he said.
Kenney said the movement also became more professional, building organizations, raising money and drawing in political operatives with campaign and fundraising experience.
He also sees substantial overlap between separatist activists and people who support Russian President Vladimir Putin or believe conspiracy theories about Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Kenney emphasized that he was describing activists, not typical separation voters, whom he characterized as frustrated Albertans sending Ottawa a message.
He said the MAGA movement has been “inspirational” for some separatist activists. They “tried to infiltrate with at least some success” the United Conservative Party he founded, he said. Smith replaced Kenney in 2022 after appealing to United Conservative Party members angry over COVID-19 restrictions.
“Literally, you can look at the players,” Kenney said of the convoy and separatist movements. “It’s the same people.”
Prime Minister Mark Carney has made getting Alberta oil to new markets a national priority and backs a proposed pipeline to the West Coast. His more business- and energy-friendly policies, along with his opposition to U.S. President Trump’s trade war and 51st-state rhetoric, have made the federal Liberal leader unusually popular in conservative Alberta.
Kenney, one of the most prominent conservative critics of Trudeau’s approach to Alberta, said Carney “speaks as an Albertan,” understands the province’s grievances and aspirations, and is moving in the right direction on energy.
Alberta sends roughly 90% of its crude oil exports to the United States, and separatists have taken their campaign directly to Washington.
Rath confirmed he and other independence advocates met with U.S. State Department officials three times and presented a document outlining what an independent Alberta could offer the United States.
He claimed that people involved in the meetings were going directly to the White House and that a possible oil pipeline through the U.S. to the Pacific was “literally a topic of our last meeting with the U.S. State Department.”
The State Department said that “the Department regularly meets with a wide range of representatives. The vote is a decision for the people of Alberta.”
Kenney called the outreach “bonkers,” saying people with “zero democratic mandate” were discussing with a foreign government “the status of a separate state that does not exist.”
Alberta is not Canada’s only national-unity challenge. Quebec voters returned the separatist Parti Quebecois to power Oct. 5, although support for independence remains around 30%.
Quebec voters have twice rejected independence, most recently by a razor-thin margin in a 1995 referendum.
Gillies writes for the Associated Press.
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