Republicans accustomed to safe seats are suddenly campaigning hard, and Democrats are chasing House districts that weren’t on their radar when the cycle began, Axios reported on Wednesday.
Members like Reps. John McGuire (R-VA) and Lauren Boebert (R-CO) weren’t seen as at risk at the start of President Donald Trump’s second term. Candidates in these districts point to higher prices, corruption, the Iran war and anti-incumbent anger. Most of these seats haven’t gone Democratic in years, and Axios says they’d flip only if Democrats win the national vote by double digits.
Michigan Rep. Jack Bergman, who defeated Democrat Callie Barr by 21 points two years ago, is airing sharp attack ads calling her “Crooked Callie,” in contrast to his low-key 2024 campaign. Virginia’s McGuire, who won by 15 in 2024, is also running attack ads against former Rep. Tom Perriello.
Barr says voters stop by her offices to vent about the incumbent. “We’re in a real race. It’s unreal,” she said.
Perriello, who won his first term in the 2008 Democratic wave, said that wave was driven by Obama but that Republicans weren’t collapsing. “This election has the bottom dropping out on the Republican side,” he added.
Meanwhile, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Viet Shelton said Republicans are rushing to shore up seats Democrats were mocked for targeting a year ago. “Who’s laughing now?” Shelton said.
As of now, neither the DCCC nor the associated Democratic outside group House Majority PAC has put money into most of these races, though HMP cites its work in Texas’ redrawn 15th District and North Carolina’s 11th. Smaller groups are stepping in, with Science Victory Fund planning $200,000 across 15 strongly Republican districts. In Colorado, Boebert’s Democratic challenger, Eileen Laubacher, had raised more than $10 million by mid-year to Boebert’s $1 million.
The National Republican Congressional Committee dismissed the Democrats’ push as premature celebration based on a flawed target list.
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