Angry Youth in Aging Europe

Over the last few years we’ve seen the rise of a formidable political force: Gen Z protesters. They have toppled governments in Bangladesh, Nepal, Peru and Madagascar. They’re behind India’s largest protests in years, which so far have forced the resignation of the country’s education minister.

Now we’re witnessing protests by young people in France, who share the anger of other Gen Z protesters around the world, but not the same political power. Because unlike their contemporaries outside the West, young people in Europe are a shrinking demographic. Today my colleague Amanda Taub writes about the intense generational tensions in the West’s aging societies and why they risk becoming a vicious cycle.

A zero-sum game

By Amanda Taub

France may seem like a nation of perpetual protest. But if you are trying to make sense of the latest wave of demonstrations spurred on by young people angry over dilapidated schools, it might help to cast your mind back just a few years.

Not long ago, the French took to the streets when President Emmanuel Macron raised the retirement age from 62 to 64. The outcry was so intense that the government eventually suspended the measure; France’s pensions remain one of the biggest drains on the budget of a nation with one of the highest debt levels in Europe.

Today’s protesters have taken to the barricades to demand more resources for the young, while the earlier ones marched to protect resources for the old. In both cases, the protesters saw themselves in a fight with the French government; it might be equally valid to say they were — and still are — in a fight with each other.

The dissatisfaction currently roiling Europe, from France to Spain to Britain to Belgium, is about many things: schools, housing, pensions, unemployment. But step back, and it’s also about one big thing — a generational fight over an economic pie fixed in its size by the continent’s chronic slow economic growth.

‘Gerontonomia’

As Europe’s population ages, conflict may be unavoidable. Because ultimately, different generations have different economic interests, said Tim Vlandas, a professor at Oxford.

Young people need investments in education, a strong labor market and affordable housing. People over 65, by contrast, tend to want generous pensions and social care, protection for the value of their homes and other assets, and low inflation, even at the cost of higher unemployment. (No one likes inflation, but retirees who rely on savings and fixed incomes are particularly sensitive to it.)

As older people become a larger portion of the population in aging societies, their political influence has also grown, and they have been getting their way. The result is what Vlandas calls “gerontonomia,” a form of “democratically sustained economic stagnation.”

The disease and its symptoms are widespread. In France, youth unemployment stands at around 20 percent. GDP growth fell to zero percent in the second quarter of this year. Pension costs make up approximately a quarter of all public spending, in part because the retirement age is so low, but there is little political appetite for changing it. Many, particularly on the left, have argued that it is possible to preserve pensions and increase education spending. But the question of how to pay remains. The looming threat of a debt crisis makes further borrowing difficult. And wealth taxes, while often politically appealing, have not raised much money in the past.

The situation is similar in Spain, which has one of the oldest populations in Europe, and where protests over a housing crisis recently contributed to Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s decision to call new elections. While the face of the protests was an 87-year-old renter, many young people joined, because the housing crisis disproportionately affects them.

Spanish youth unemployment is over 22 percent. House prices have risen far more quickly than wages, adding to the wealth of older generations, but leaving many young people with a choice of living with their parents well into their 30s or sacrificing savings to pay a steep rent.

In Britain, the youth unemployment rate is lower, around 16 percent. But housing costs are steep, particularly in and around London, where most job growth is located. And the country has committed to the so-called “triple lock,” a policy that has for years ensured pensions have risen faster than wages.

In a recent speech, Prime Minister Andy Burnham pledged to overhaul the policy, long considered untouchable. One union leader called the pledge “almost electoral insanity,” even though Burnham promised to spend the money saved on adult social care, which would largely benefit the aged, too.

Why older people have an edge

Wealthy nations can look forward to more of these battles, but older people may continue to set the political agenda.

The elderly are well-placed to rally others to their cause, because they have institutions on their side, said Kevin Arceneaux, a political science professor at Sciences Po in Paris. Political parties and unions have an incentive to protect the interests of older people, who make up the bulk of their membership and voting coalitions.

It is also easier to convince young people to support old-age benefits that they might one day receive than it is to convince old people to pay more for education that they will never use themselves. Younger generations share some of the benefits from spending on the elderly, experts say. Adult children still living at home may see pension payments as part of their household’s income, rather than a transfer from young workers to retirees.

In Britain, Laura Serra, a researcher at the London School of Economics, has found that working-age generations often worry they will have to support their aging parents themselves if pensions are cut. In fact, France’s young people were out in force to support the 2023 protests against Macron’s proposed pension reform.

But with economic growth slow in much of the continent, and government borrowing becoming prohibitively expensive, choices may have to be made. And when they are, young people, and perhaps economies as a whole, will be at a disadvantage.

Last week, as young people blocked schools across the country, France’s lawmakers met to review next year’s budget. One of their first moves was to preserve a tax break for pensioners.

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