A record-breaking season of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Pacific Ocean is battering the Southern California coastline.
Researchers at Colorado State University confirmed on Monday that storms this summer have generated a higher accumulated cyclone energy, which measures the total wind energy, intensity and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, than ever before, surpassing the prior seasonal record set in 2018.
“It’s been a wild season,” said Daniel Cayan, a climate researcher at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego, noting that parts of Southern California‘s coast have already experienced significant damage ahead of any winter storms in store for the region amid the strongest El Niño on record.
The historic Long Beach boardwalk buckled after a barrage of storms over the past month. As Tropical Storm Rachel approached the coast this weekend, powerful waves slammed into oceanfront homes, leaving some on the verge of collapse.
In Newport Beach, water from a massive swell—double the size that was initially predicted—blasted through 20-foot berms erected at the beach and inundated roads with about a foot of sea water ahead of Rachel’s arrival.
Elsewhere along the coast, the continuous battering from higher than normal ocean levels and strong waves this summer has washed away sand profoundly altering the Wedge in Newport Beach, San Onofre, Laguna Beach and San Clemente.
The exceptionally active hurricane season in the Pacific is influenced by several factors including a long-term ocean heating trend caused by of global warming and higher nearshore ocean temperatures and a decrease in wind shear from El Niño, which can significantly weaken hurricane activity, UC Agriculture and Natural Resources climate scientist Daniel Swain explained during a recent webinar.
“El Niño in the Pacific Basin decreases wind shear, so it removes the inhibitive storm-decapitating effect of wind shear at the same time that it amplifies water temperature,” Swain said. “So it adds more fuel and it makes that fuel more likely to take advantage of its environment.”
These storms, combined with high tides and the Kelvin wave, which can add another 6 to 12 inches to background sea levels, have resulted in significant damage and a reshaping of the coast this summer.
And it’s not over yet, experts say.
Hurricane Simon, currently spinning along Mexico’s west coast, is expected to make landfall there this week and forecasters say there’s roughly a 90% chance of another cyclone formation in the next seven days.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a couple more hurricanes or tropical systems forming in the Central Pacific, South Pacific area,” said Kristan Lund, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard.
Southern California is also bracing to see what El Niño has in store this winter.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center said last week that there is virtually a 100% chance that the El Niño this season will be categorized as “very strong.” There’s also an 83% chance that this El Niño will be the strongest on record, which goes back to 1950, up from a 75% probability forecast last month.
Even if it doesn’t result in torrential rain, El Niño can also wreak havoc on the coastline.
“There’s likely to be pretty profound influences along the coast,” Cayan said of the months ahead. “There’s also cliff failures and other impacts when you get these big waves that are higher and more active than normal, so there’s a lot of concern about that.”
Two of the strongest El Niños in the last 75 years were associated with extensive damage to the Southern California coast, battering homes, flooding streets and damaging piers. Another one did not result in above-average rain, but did cause record coastal erosion.
If El Niño-fueled winter storms arrive during King Tides, it’s likely that California will see coastal erosion, flooding and damage, Cayan said. Such tides are expected around Thanksgiving Day, Christmas and late January.
“Since that really big winter in 1983 we’ve had several occasions of pretty active winter storms, but we’ve sort of dodged bullets because those storms, in general, didn’t fall upon on the highest tides,” Cayan said. “So this winter again, it’s going to be sort of a luck of the draw.”
The post Record-breaking hurricane activity in Pacific Ocean is battering the California coast appeared first on Los Angeles Times.
