Critics erupted after newly released federal data showed consumer goods prices would have fallen starting in early 2025 — and kept falling into 2026 — if not for President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
“Without Trump’s stupid f—— tariffs, we should have had DEFLATION and cause to really slash rates,” wrote George Hamilton, a longtime finance and trading blogger, in a social media post on X. “He’s a piece of s—.”
According to a new analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Liberty Street Economics, inflation on consumer goods, excluding oil and services, was “back near its slightly negative pre-COVID average for most of 2024.” Consumer goods inflation soon picked up, however, increasing to just under 3% by early 2026, the latest pool of federal data used in the analysis.
The authors projected that the tariffs’ contribution to consumer goods inflation would fall to around zero by August 2026, an easing they attributed to the Supreme Court ruling that struck down Trump’s emergency-powers tariffs.
“In sum, we estimate that about a quarter of a tariff increase is passed through to consumer goods prices,” the analysis reads.
“Importantly, tariffs also raise the prices of goods that are not directly taxed: goods made in the U.S. account for about a third of the total effect. This indirect effect takes longer to materialize than the direct effect on imported goods, so the full effect of a tariff takes about a year to appear.”
Given the other actions of the Trump administration that have sent costs soaring, such as the president’s deeply unpopular war against Iran, critics were left furious.
“The stupid Iran war isn’t the only thing driving prices up,” wrote Derek Cressman, a California-based author and political-reform advocate, in a social media post on X. “It’s also the stupid tariffs.”
Even some conservatives, such as former Rep. Joe Walsh (R-IL), expressed outrage over the analysis’ findings, blaming the cost hikes squarely on “MAGA.” Independent journalist Brad Polumbo opted to instead respond with sarcasm.
“But at least we decreased the trade deficit and shrunk the budget deficit. Oh, wait…” Polumbo wrote in a social media post on X.
New from @NewYorkFed: Trump’s 2025-26 tariffs contributed 2.9 percentage points to US goods price inflation, via higher prices for imports AND domestic goods. Without the tariffs, “goods prices would have fallen slightly.”
https://t.co/V9ygsJLE1b — Scott Lincicome (@scottlincicome) October 6, 2026
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