Plain-speaking, confident and buoyed by rising personal ratings, Kemi Badenoch has gained a tight grip on Britain’s main opposition Conservative Party since she became its leader in 2024, following its disastrous general election defeat.
But as she prepared for a keynote speech on Wednesday at her party’s annual conference in Birmingham, England, Ms. Badenoch, who is the first Black leader of a major British political party, faces battles on two fronts.
Despite her own improved ratings, the Conservatives are less popular with voters, surveys suggest, than when they suffered their catastrophic election loss in 2024. According to opinion polls they trail not just the governing Labour Party — rejuvenated under its recently-installed leader, Prime Minister Andy Burnham — but also the right-wing populist Reform U.K. party, led by Nigel Farage.
Mr. Farage has had a rocky few months, with questions swirling about his finances and those of his party, but Reform’s support in the polls still hovers at around 22 percent, about five percentage points above the Tories.
The fractures on Britain’s political right could help the Labour Party in the next general election, analysts say, which must be called by 2029 but could come sooner.
“Farage has not yet conceded that he can’t kill the Conservatives and perhaps still hopes that he can,” said Tim Bale, a professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London. “And Badenoch shows no signs of wanting to do a deal with Reform, at least before the election.”
“Unless the Conservatives can once and for all put Reform to bed, or Reform could do the same to the Conservatives, then that split on the right is going to be important.”
In interviews ahead of her speech, Ms. Badenoch rejected any idea of striking a pact with Reform to “unite the right.”
Her party has announced several policies apparently designed to tempt Reform voters, talking tough on issues including migration, welfare cuts, looser climate change targets and lower taxes. It also promised higher military spending, including a £10 billion project called the “Britannia shield,” inspired by Israel’s Iron Dome antimissile system, although military experts expressed doubt that the whole country could be protected without spending significantly more.
In her speech Ms. Badenoch is expected to promise a “battle for the soul of this nation,” arguing that “spending money we don’t have on things we can’t afford is not kind, it is reckless.”
According to excerpts released in advance by her office, she will say: “We have a fight on our hands and we need to be ready. No one else is going to solve these problems. No one else is going to deliver a stronger economy and a stronger country.”
In Birmingham the mood was upbeat among many Conservatives despite the party’s failure to improve its ratings since the election that ejected them from power after 14 years.
The party displayed a mock-up of the famous Bayeux Tapestry, the original of which is currently on display in London. Its “Birmingham Tapestry” features satirical images of opponents, including Mr. Farage who is portrayed at one point as a wailing infant throwing his toys out of a stroller, a reference to his anger at a parliamentary investigation into an undisclosed 5 million pound gift.
Ms. Badenoch, who is portrayed in the mock tapestry as a triumphal leader, has produced a 30,000 word document on her political principles, telling the Times of London: “I call it Kemistry.”
Many supporters hope that Mr. Farage’s troubles will continue and that Mr. Burnham’s current popularity subsides amid economic challenges, leaving the Conservatives as the obvious alternative.
Some activists believe, however, that the party should pay close attention to the online debate among supporters of Reform U.K. and Restore Britain — a far-right party led by a Reform defector.
“The Conservative Party needs to explore the conversation online and direct it into a positive direction for itself,” said Lucy Harris, a Conservative Party member who once represented Mr. Farage’s Brexit Party, the forerunner of Reform, in the European Parliament.
By trying to capture some voters back from Reform, Ms. Badenoch has shifted her party rightward. That will likely make it less attractive to more centrist Conservative voters, some of whom have switched to the Liberal Democrats.
Reform has helped Ms. Badenoch in one respect, by providing a home for her former leadership rival, Robert Jenrick, who defected from the Conservatives to Mr. Farage’s party earlier this year.
Critics once predicted that Ms. Badenoch would be a short-lived leader, but for now she appears to have no credible challenger.
Relations between leading Conservative Party and Reform U.K. figures are icy. For now, a deal to unite the right looks unlikely even if, on some issues, the Conservatives and Reform are not so far apart.
Things could change, however.
“Before elections it’s always difficult,” Professor Bale said. “If the next election were to deliver the two parties, put together, a possible majority, then they maybe would be able to come to some agreement.”
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