A surprise victory for a right-wing populist embroiled in scandal. Crushing defeat for a party deemed out of touch with its base. Supporters on the left grasping for answers.
The scene may feel familiar to Americans. This time, it unfolded in a Latin American nation thousands of miles away. And the results could profoundly reshape the region and relations with Washington.
Brazil’s right-wing challenger, Flávio Bolsonaro, didn’t win the presidency Sunday night, but seemed well on his way to victory.
Neither Mr. Bolsonaro nor President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva clinched enough votes to win in the first round of voting. But a formidable showing by Mr. Bolsonaro, the son of the former president jailed for attempting a coup after the last election, appeared to foreshadow a win in a two-way contest on Oct. 25.
For months, polls had predicted a close race between the two men, with Mr. Lula leading by the slimmest of margins. The leftist president had framed his candidacy as the only way to halt the return of the Bolsonaro family to power, just four years after Jair Bolsonaro lost the last election and inspired his supporters to storm the capital, demanding that the result be overturned.
Mr. Lula had also sought to portray his candidacy as defending Brazil’s sovereignty against attempts by the Trump administration to intervene in the country’s domestic affairs.
Mr. Bolsonaro had struggled to shake off a corruption scandal and divided voters with his plans to seek amnesty for his father and the rioters. Then, on Sunday, he surprised many when he captured 48 percent of the vote, finishing two points ahead of his rival.
“Even Jair Bolsonaro may be surprised by this result,” said Jairo Nicolau, a prominent political scientist and professor at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation, a research institution.
A runoff win for Mr. Bolsonaro would deliver the biggest win yet for a right-wing movement sweeping Latin America. The last seven presidencies in the region have been captured by the right.
It would also represent a major triumph for President Trump, ejecting one of his most outspoken foes among world leaders who has not shied away from challenging the American leader.
It would also usher in an enthusiastic ally willing to help Mr. Trump’s bold plans for dominance in the region.
A Surprise Favorite
It is not yet clear just what brought Mr. Bolsonaro to the brink of victory.
“It was conceivable that Flávio could come close to Lula or even overtake him,” said Mr. Nicolau. “But what happened in Brazil was a right-wing tidal wave,” he added. “We’re going to spend a long time trying to understand.”
Some analysts said Mr. Bolsonaro managed to rally at least a slice of conservative voters planning to vote for other right-wing contenders. Growing disillusionment with Mr. Lula’s party, which has been in power for the better part of two decades, also likely fueled his challenger’s success. Many Brazilians are concerned over pervasive violence and crushing personal debt.
Mr. Bolsonaro has tried to link his rival to a corruption scandal sweeping Brazil’s Supreme Court. The Brazilian president has tried to distance himself and called for judicial overhaul.
The momentum of the Brazilian right was also on full display in the nation’s legislative races, where right-wing candidates, including three other members of the Bolsonaro family, made spectacular strides in both Congress and the Senate.
“A complete takeover of the far right,” said Guilherme Casarões, professor of Brazilian studies at Florida International University in Miami.
This means that, whomever ultimately wins the presidency, Latin America’s largest democracy is poised to keep marching to the right — a prospect that excited Carlos Augusto Marques, a 63-year-old writer casting a vote in Rio de Janeiro.
“To improve, we need four or five center-right governments, at least,” he said.
If Mr. Bolsonaro wins, his party’s gains could allow him to deliver some of his most divisive promises: an amnesty for his father, pardons for participants of the Jan. 8 riots, and a Senate more willing to try to remove justices who convicted his father.
A Pathway to Victory
Now, the presidential contest is headed for what is likely to be a bitterly contested final leg, with both candidates racing to capture millions of more votes. Yet the pathway to victory may prove far more daunting for Mr. Lula.
Analysts say he could still stage a comeback, particularly if he could win over some of the 33 million Brazilians who skipped Sunday’s vote.
In Brazil, voting is mandatory for most people between the ages of 18 and 70, though absentees only face a small fine. This year, the number of Brazilians who sat out the first round rose to a record high of 21 percent.
Mr. Lula may also succeed in striking coalitions with other parties in hopes of convincing some moderate voters who reject Mr. Bolsonaro to shift their support to him.
Alberto Saab, 55, is among the eight percent of voters on Sunday who supported a third-party candidate. The engineer has voted for both candidates in the past, but remains undecided so far for the runoff.
He has been impressed with leftist investment in education, yet he also supports the right’s bolder measures to combat security. “The world is very polarized,” he said. “If we don’t return to some sort of center of balance, I think we’ll remain in a difficult situation.”
Mr. Bolsonaro is being investigated for raising millions for a biopic about his jailed father, from a disgraced banker at the center of a massive fraud. Details of the probe have dominated public debate, fueling expectations for more bombshell revelations closer to the final vote.
In recent weeks, Mr. Lula has seized the opportunity to dial up attacks on his rival’s record. His campaign aired an online minidoc exploring controversaries in Mr. Bolsonaro’s political career and a video linking Mr. Bolsonaro’s alleged ties to militias. Some voters may not be swayed in either direction. Kailhany Machado, 23, voted for a third candidate and plans to cast a blank ballot in the runoff.
“Flávio is involved in several scandals and Lula? I don’t even need to tell you,” Ms. Machado said. “They’re corrupt, criminal, and don’t deserve our vote.”
Enter Trump?
Mr. Trump has been a wildcard in Brazil’s presidential race.
Ahead of the runoff, he could stay quiet, openly endorse Mr. Bolsonaro or ratchet up pressure with new measures aimed at Brazil.
Last year, Mr. Trump stepped in to help Mr. Bolsonaro’s father, avoid a prison term. Nevertheless, the elder Mr. Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years in prison, though he is serving his term at home because of poor health.
Mr. Trump has not championed any presidential candidate, though his administration has appeared to lift Mr. Bolsonaro in more subtle ways ahead of the vote. This has alarmed Brazil, which has accused the United States of trying to sway its elections and put up a firewall to try to shield its democracy from threats.
Flávio Bolsonaro has aligned himself with Mr. Trump and other right-wing leaders in the region, echoing plans to mount a hard-line attack on the drug gangs that have become a major concern for many ordinary Brazilians.
And, like Mr. Trump, Mr. Bolsonaro is now looking to rewrite his own nation’s history.
@Isabela Cruz and @Leo Coelho contributed reporting from Rio de Janeiro. Seth Kugelcontributed reporting from São Paulo. Thayz Guimarãesand Alice Macielcontributed reporting from Brasília.
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