A new Marist Poll survey found Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott trailing behind his Democratic opponent by three points, a development that left several onlookers in absolute shock.
“I cannot stress enough how much modern republican identity is bound up in Texas, and how monumental of a blow to their psyche it would be if Greg Abbott goes down,” wrote Leah Greenberg, a progressive activist and co-founder of Indivisible, in a social media post on X. “Oh my.”
The survey was responded to by 1,139 registered Texas voters between Sept. 17 and Sept. 20, and found that 49% of respondents said they would be supporting Texas gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa, a progressive Texas state House member and public education advocate. A total of 46% indicated they intended on supporting Abbott.
“Everyone wake up! Big things are happening in Texas,” wrote Rebecca Katz, a Democratic political strategist and communications consultant, in a social media post on X Saturday.
Despite Democrats not having won a statewide race in Texas in more than three decades, Hinojosa has steadily climbed in the polls as the midterms fast approach. Additionally, polling has shown GOP Senate nominee Ken Paxton increasingly trailing his Democratic opponent, Texas state Rep. James Talarico, despite the “staggering” amount of cash that has been poured into the state to bolster Paxton’s electoral prospects.
“Greg Abbott is a way better candidate than Ken Paxton, Gina Hinojosa is clearly cooking here,” noted Armand Domalewski, a prominent housing-policy activist and commentator.
Veteran Democratic strategist and analyst Adrienne Elrod responded to the new poll with a single word — albeit one repeated three times: “Wow. Wow. Wow!” she wrote in a social media post on X Saturday.
Hinojosa’s performance among independent Texas voters was far stronger. According to the poll, 52% of independent voters indicated they intended on supporting Hinojosa to Abbott’s 39%.
I cannot stress enough how much modern republican identity is bound up in Texas, and how monumental of a blow to their psyche it would be if Greg Abbott goes down https://t.co/sXBIAIWJB7 — Leah Greenberg says NO KINGS
(@Leahgreenb) October 3, 2026
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