The Group of Seven wealthy democracies said Friday that they plan to release 100 million barrels of oil and fuel products in the coming weeks, starting with “substantial” amounts of diesel after the fuel recently hit record high prices in the United States.
President Donald Trump said the diesel release would happen “immediately,” echoing a G7 promise to start “immediately” with a “frontloaded substantial release” of diesel within the next 20 days and the rest over four months.
Trump and his Republican Party face pressure to address surging pricesahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections, and Trump announced the action Friday on social media. The president’s approval ratings on the economy hit a new low, according to an AP-NORC poll, as the Iran war and his trade battles have increased U.S. prices for oil and other goods.
Gas prices in the U.S. and abroad have soared during the eight-month-long war, a cost Trump has repeatedly said is worth it for making sure Iran does not obtain nuclear weapons. The national average for a gallon of diesel in the U.S. was $6.37 on Friday, according to AAA, after hitting a record $6.52 on Sept. 22. Diesel prices have hit records in Europe, too.
The release of diesel in Europe might mean less exports of diesel from the U.S., which could lower prices by 25-50 cents per gallon after a few weeks, said Michael Lynch, distinguished fellow at Energy Policy Research Foundation, a non-partisan research institution focused on energy and economics.
Macron says the decision should bring down prices
France holds the rotating presidency of the G7 group and made the announcement in a statement released after videoconference talks that Macron presided over. The G7 countries are Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S., plus EU representation.
The release follows on from a March announcement that International Energy Agency member countries would release 426 million barrels of oil and products to stabilize the oil market. European Union countries committed about 92 million barrels, a promise weighted toward refined products made from crude such as diesel.
“This common decision and this unity should bring down prices,” Macron said. “The volumes we’re releasing should also add liquidity to the market and bring down prices.”
In addition to the rise in the price of the crude oil from which diesel is made, other factors include the decision by Russia to ban exports due to Ukrainian drone strikes on its refineries. Europe does not import Russian diesel, but other buyers of Russian diesel such as Turkey and Latin American countries must now compete with Europe for available barrels.
Meanwhile refined product shipments from the Persian Gulf producers have fallen due to war damage and blocked export routes.
The statement pushed U.S. oil prices down 2% but “the impact was lessened by lack of clarity on an important question,” said Pavel Molchanov, investment strategy analyst at Raymond James. Is the 100 million barrels in addition to the amount already agreed in March, or “is this the final portion of the existing pledge?” he said.
The G7 says export bans are off the table
Some Republicans in the U.S. had called for Trump to ban U.S. exports of diesel to try to bring domestic prices down. But the G7 statement said the group agreed not to limit energy exports to each other. Oil market analysts warn a U.S. export ban could lower prices in the short term but eventually backfire by reducing supplies of gasoline since diesel output can’t be lowered without also cutting overall refinery production.
Asked about a potential U.S. export ban on Friday, Trump said “we were never going to do it.”
“We’re not going to be doing the export ban,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “We’re going to be doing what we’re supposed to do.” He added that Europe is making “a major world contribution, and so are we.”
Experts say there are risks in the strategy
The emergency release could also be a short-term fix with the potential to do long-term harm, said Jim Krane, energy research fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute.
“Draining stocks will reduce retail fuel prices for a while, at the cost of leaving Europe with less emergency cover,” Krane said. “At some point in the future Europe and the rest of the G7 will have to refill their strategic reserves. Normally they try to do this when prices are low. Nobody knows when that will happen. It’s a risk.”
With two wars raging that involve attacks on refineries and exports, “it’s not the best time to be frittering away your emergency stocks — especially when there is no visibility on future prices or peace agreements,” Krane said.
Trump had a conversation overnight with Macron about the need to address rising fuel prices and the availability of petroleum products, according to the French Embassy in the U.S. Macron on Friday then chaired the videoconference of G7 leaders to discuss the issue.
Besides his call with Macron, Trump on Friday called in to the meeting with the G7 leaders to negotiate the release of the European diesel stockpiles, according to a White House official who was not authorized to speak publicly and spoke on the condition of anonymity.
Trump on Thursday embarked on what he said would be a 32-day marathon of rallies to try to bolster his party’s chances for keeping control of the U.S. House and Senate in the November elections. The president has grown increasingly frustrated with what he sees as a disconnect between his achievements and the public’s view of his work. This week he gave himself an A-plus for his work on the economy but said “we’re doing an extremely poor job of promotion.”
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