A Climate Change Rebrand

A few years ago, I covered the Yellow Vest protests in France, where workers rebelled against a fuel tax billed as a green measure. I interviewed protesters at German car plants lamenting the shift to electric vehicles, which reduces the number of jobs. Now, in Britain, I’m watching the same people who once campaigned for Brexit campaign against renewables, which they say have raised energy bills. (There’s something to that; read on.)

Across the West, the climate has become another battleground in the culture wars. That’s one reason why, despite an alarming list of deadly climate disasters around the world, you don’t hear as many politicians talk about the climate anymore. But that doesn’t mean they’re not thinking about it. Today I write about the politics driving a climate change rebrand.

Just call it ‘energy security’

Europe’s hottest summer on record. A collapsing glacier in Nepal. Wildfires and droughts and freakish storms around the world.

That’s what 1.5 degrees Celsius in warming above preindustrial levels looks like. It’s a number I found difficult to wrap my head around until a climate expert explained it to me this way: Imagine your body temperature going up by 1.5 degrees. You feel unwell. Now imagine it rising by 2 degrees — you’re seriously ill.

The planet is unwell. For many, that alone makes the case for aggressively shifting away from fossil fuels to renewables.

But even for those primarily interested in their bottom lines, the case has become pretty compelling. Renewable energy is the cheapest it’s ever been. And it insulates countries from costly strategic dependencies.

All of the above could be making the politics of the green transition easier. Instead, across the West, they’ve become more difficult. Experts say even those committed to switching to renewables will often deliberately avoid the word climate, talking instead about “energy security” or “affordability.”

A no-brainer?

This reframing has the virtue of being true.

The wars in Ukraine and Iran have shown that relying on unstable partners (Russia) and unstable regions (the Middle East) for energy supplies makes countries vulnerable. At best, these countries could risk a painful surge in their cost of living. At worst, shortages could destabilize their politics.

And regardless of geopolitical tensions, many renewables increasingly win on cost alone, experts say. I spoke to Wolfgang Blau, who advises businesses across the world on their climate strategies. He told me that the technological progress of the last five years had taken even optimists like him by surprise.

“Not in our wildest dreams did we expect solar, wind and, especially, batteries to become so cheap and productive so fast,” Blau said. China now generates nearly as much electricity from renewables alone as the entire U.S. power system produces from all sources. The U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia are building renewables at a pace and scale that few would have predicted three years ago, Blau said.

Companies can no longer ignore the climate, either. Significantly higher insurance premiums for flood or wildfire or heat-wave risks mean climate change often shows up in the bottom line. Transportation costs have spiked thanks to lower water levels in crucial waterways, from the Rhine to the Panama Canal. If your supply chain depends on these, “this affects you and that’s because of climate change — even if no one calls it that anymore,” Blau said.

Leaving the people behind

But why are politicians and others in power so hesitant to talk about the climate?

Right-wing populists on both sides of the Atlantic have taken aim at climate policies as a liberal elitist project that hurts working-class people.

In Europe, the people campaigning against “net zero” — the goal of getting carbon emissions to zero — accuse governments of driving up their energy bills. (Their arguments find traction in part because they’re not wrong. The process of constructing a grid that can efficiently distribute renewables comes with a price tag that some politicians have been reluctant to talk about, and that will drive electricity bills up, not down, at least for a few years.)

In the U.S., President Trump has aggressively doubled down on fossil fuels and calls climate change a “hoax.”

In both places, the politics around climate have created a pressure to stop talking about it.

Brussels increasingly pitches its climate agenda as “energy independence.” In Britain, where I live, a committee of British lawmakers last month suggested the government drop the term “net zero” altogether, because it had become so toxic.

I spoke to Katie White at our Climate Forward conference in New York last week. She’s Britain’s minister for climate transition, and even she said she was comfortable using terms like “energy security” or “resilience,” if they helped politically.

“If people want to use a different word or a different phrase, or a different term, I’m fine with that,” she said. “As long as we’re moving forward.” (You can watch our conversation here.)

In the U.S., Blau said, companies often avoid the word climate for fear of being accused by Republican attorneys general of neglecting their fiduciary duties to their shareholders, should they invest in something the administration doesn’t view as real. But many keep investing in green technology. Republican Texas, in the meantime, is adding more renewable energy capacity than any other state. Why? “Because they no longer see it as a liberal pro-climate technology. They see it as the cheapest way of producing electricity,” Blau said.

The world is in a strange moment when it comes to climate. The push to replace fossil fuels is poised to make great progress, even as the subject of sustainability gets drawn ever deeper into our political divisions. The tricky politics of climate aren’t stopping the green transition, but they are slowing it; the future of our planet might depend on which prove stronger — market forces, or the culture wars.

You can watch the interviews from last week’s Climate Forward conference here. I talked to a businessman who wants to mine the ocean floor, with enthusiastic support from Trump (and opposition from hundreds of ocean scientists).

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TOP OF THE WORLD

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CINEMATIC CLASSIC OF THE DAY

“Marie Antoinette”

Sofia Coppola’s 2006 movie about the ill-fated French queen turns 20 this year. The movie’s pastel aesthetic and anachronistic soundtrack divided audiences at the time, but it has since become a classic. Versailles is honoring the film’s anniversary with an exhibition at the royal estate.

MORNING READ

Will A.I. make our brains lazy? My colleagues Juliana Castro Varón and Dylan Freedman take a look at the latest research (with delightful illustrations by Juliana), and find some troubling signals.

A.I. tools condition people to expect immediate responses and deny them the experience of working through challenges. That’s crucial for skill development and one of the strongest predictors of long-term learning. “Part of how A.I. is making us dumber,” said one neuroscientist, is “undercutting the development of learning how to think” for younger people “who now have an alternative.” Read more.

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For hundreds of years, Japanese marriages were brokered through “omiai,” a practice in which matchmakers, usually relatives, family friends or bosses, linked together the single people in their orbit. But the custom fell out of fashion, giving way to unbrokered dating and, eventually, dating apps.

Now, young Japanese singles who are tired of the apps are flocking to marriage agencies that promise a fast track to the altar — and charge a premium for it. Across Tokyo, advertisements line metro cars, urging commuters to “leave life’s fateful encounters to the pros.” Another declares: “Better one omiai than 100 swipes.” Read more.

RECIPE

Taho is a classic Filipino snack that you can also serve as a mildly sweet dessert. It’s made with layers of silken tofu and tapioca pearls covered in arnibal, a brown-sugar syrup.

WHERE IS THIS?

Which city is near this observatory?

BEFORE YOU GO …

I learned something about readers of The World this week: Mobile phones at concerts are a subject that animates you guys a lot. (Almost as much as European identity!)

We asked for your thoughts on Phoebe Bridgers’s decision to require fans to hand over their devices before her concerts. Most of you were very much on board.

“I love concerts without phones,” wrote Kristan Swan, echoing many others.

“We live in a world where we have opted to silo ourselves, and as a result, it can be challenging to experience a moment that is unscripted or not chosen,” she continued. “Why not embrace the opportunity to disconnect?”

Some of you, though, a much smaller number, wrote in to say you disagreed with the ban. I found Michelle Gastelum’s reasoning interesting.

“We’re not children,” she wrote. “If someone wants to be on the phone to videotape the concert to record the experience for a future time, that should be their prerogative to do so; and others who prefer just to be in the moment can also do that.”

I have sympathy with both views. I prefer enjoying any kind of performance — my kids’ school plays, my favorite bands in concert — without any pressure to take photos or videos. But I confess that I also love having mementos to look back at and share. And so in my ideal world, my husband is the one with his phone out. I get to just vibe.

Speaking of vibing, this will sort you out: “Sage Motel” by the Monophonics.

Have a great weekend! — Katrin