The bombings in the capital cities of India and Pakistan were just a day apart and nearly identical in damage and impact — about a dozen people killed in each blast, the deadliest for either city in more than a decade.
There was nothing to directly connect the explosions, but they came at a moment of simmering tensions between the South Asian rivals just months after the two countries fought a short but intense military conflict triggered by finger-pointing over a previous episode of terrorist carnage.
Concerns that a similar blame game could escalate once again left the region on edge, especially with channels of communication and diplomacy between the two nuclear-armed nations having sunk to their lowest level in years.
India has long accused Pakistan of nurturing militants who wage violence in its territory, providing them sanctuary and support. In recent years, Pakistan has intensified similar claims against India — that New Delhi has a hand in supporting the militant and separatist forces fighting the Pakistani state.
The regional dynamics have only grown more volatile and complicated since the return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan, which shares a 1,600-mile porous border with Pakistan. Islamabad supported the Taliban during its 20-year insurgency against the American-backed republic in Kabul, but now accuses it of working with India to back militants who are staging attacks in Pakistan.
Indian officials have been measured in their statements since the deadly blast on Monday in New Delhi, which killed at least 9 people and wounded 20 others near a metro station in a crowded part of the old city.
That is in part because of how much they raised the stakes in the spring after gruesome carnage at a tourist picnic spot in Kashmir, part of a region disputed by India and Pakistan. Gunmen identified Hindu tourists by their religion before killing them in front of their families, leading the prime minister, Narendra Modi, to blame Pakistan for harboring the attackers and to launch military strikes against its neighbor. He then declared that any future terror attack would be seen as an act of war.
While investigations into the New Delhi car explosion are focusing more on it being a terrorist attack, Mr. Modi and his security cabinet have been restrained in pointing fingers this time.
“The country’s leading investigative agencies are conducting a swift and thorough inquiry into the incident,” Rajnath Singh, India’s defense minister, said on Tuesday. “I want to firmly assure the nation that those responsible for this tragedy will be brought to justice and will not be spared under any circumstances.”
Analysts in New Delhi said that while tensions remain high, the spring conflict between the two countries showed how quickly things could escalate with the introduction of drones. The trail for investigators could also be more complex than was the attack in Kashmir. New Delhi has been on the radar of other terrorist groups such as the Islamic State.
The fact that the blast has shattered the capital’s sense of safety after a decade increases pressure on Indian officials.
The same could be said for Pakistan, where the government was already under pressure from a relentless wave of attacks by militants across the country, and from its intensifying dispute along its Western border with Afghanistan.
On Pakistani television and in government statements, the Afghan Taliban government is now mostly referred to as “India-backed,” keeping a focus on its archenemy. Last month, Pakistan struck two Afghan cities, including its capital, Kabul, while the Afghan foreign minister was visiting India.
Within hours of the Islamabad attack on Tuesday, Pakistan’s prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, was quick to accuse India of a hand in the rising violence, without providing evidence. Mr. Sharif said the attack near the courthouse, as well as an assault on a military college in the country’s west on Monday, had been carried out “under Indian instigation.”
India’s foreign ministry rejected the claim as “baseless and unfounded.”
Pakistan’s political and military leadership have ramped up inflammatory rhetoric against India since being emboldened by their four-day clash in May. India struck what it described as terror camps, but the conflict escalated to the verge of full-blown war when Pakistan gloated about shooting down Indian fighter jets.
That face-off has given a popularity bump to Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir, who is soon expected to be handed expanded constitutional powers.
Maleeha Lodhi, a former Pakistani ambassador to the United States and the United Nations, said Pakistani officials have kept the country on high alert because they think India is seeking to avenge the setback it suffered in that conflict. When President Trump pressured the two sides to a cease-fire, Mr. Modi said the operations against Pakistan were merely paused and not concluded.
But Ms. Lodhi said the international environment since the military conflict, where India’s ties with the United States have weakened while Pakistan has found a warmer friend, suggested it would not be easy for India to choose military action again.
“Tensions remain high,” she added, “but I doubt the two countries are on the brink of something ominous.”
Mujib Mashal is the South Asia bureau chief for The Times, helping to lead coverage of India and the diverse region around it, including Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal and Bhutan.
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