Top national Democrats are preparing to make an initial investment in the Texas Senate race, a strategic shift that speaks to the party’s growing confidence in a state that has dashed its hopes for decades.
The main super PAC for Senate Democrats, Senate Majority PAC, said on Tuesday that it would begin an advertising effort meant to help James Talarico, the Democratic nominee, by targeting his Republican opponent, Ken Paxton.
The super PAC, which is aligned with Senator Chuck Schumer, the minority leader, had so far resisted spending money in Texas, viewing the party’s path to a majority as running through smaller states where advertising is cheaper.
The group declined to provide a figure or a range for its planned spending in Texas. For now, it will run statewide ads only on YouTube and other digital and streaming platforms and forgo more expensive television ads that could drain the super PAC’s resources. That suggests that national Democrats are not yet prepared to go all-in for Mr. Talarico.
Mr. Talarico has narrowly led in polls and his campaign has raised much more money than Mr. Paxton’s, but national Republican groups have begun spending enormous amounts to prop up their nominee, giving him an overall financial advantage. G.O.P. groups have reserved about $167 million in ads for the final two months of the race.
Because the cost of political advertising in Texas is so high, with its large size and many media markets, both parties have been reluctant to invest in the state, worrying that doing so could divert resources from other top Senate races. When Senate Majority PAC announced its initial advertising plans this year, it focused on eight states and left out Texas.
Unless Democrats sharply ramp up their spending, Republicans are likely to hold an advantage on television in the final weeks of the race. As of Monday, Mr. Talarico was set to be outspent by nearly five to one on all advertising in the final two months before Election Day, with only about $35 million booked on his behalf, according to AdImpact, a media tracking firm.
Lauren French, a spokeswoman for Senate Majority PAC, said that its ads would run through Election Day and “focus on Paxton as a corrupt, dangerous individual.”
The first ad, which will come from an allied super PAC that was created last week and is called Texas Forever, targets Mr. Paxton, the state attorney general, over his office’s handling of a prominent child abuse case.
Adam Hoffman, a lawyer in Waco, Texas, was accused of sexually abusing a local boy for years. After the victim declined to testify again when the trial resulted in a hung jury, lawyers in Mr. Paxton’s office cut a deal in which Mr. Hoffman served less than a month behind bars and did not need to register as a sex offender in Texas.
The arrangement set off a local outcry and allegations that Mr. Paxton had given Mr. Hoffman a sweetheart deal. Mr. Paxton has denied any wrongdoing and defended his office’s work on the case, saying it was the best deal possible while honoring the victim’s wishes. Gerry Morris, a lawyer who represented Mr. Hoffman, told The New York Times in June that while he disliked Mr. Paxton, it was “an absolute 100 percent lie” that the attorney general had done anything to sway the case’s outcome.
Some Democrats have privately pined for Senate Majority PAC to get involved in Texas. Mr. Talarico’s fund-raising emails have pointed to the challenge he faces, using words like “beyond ridiculous” to describe the tens of millions of dollars flooding into the state for his opponent.
Garry Jones, who leads a different pro-Talarico super PAC, Lone Star Rising, argued that money alone would not swing the race for Mr. Paxton.
“We’re a few weeks into the deluge, and what we’re seeing is that there isn’t enough money in the world to make Texans forget they hate Ken Paxton,” Mr. Jones said.
Lone Star Rising said it planned to spend at least another $10 million for Mr. Talarico.
Mr. Paxton, who won a hard-fought Republican primary on the back of his support from President Trump and the party’s right-wing base, has long been trailed by scandal. He was indicted in 2015 on felony fraud charges, but cut a deal in 2024 to avoid trial without admitting guilt. He was impeached in 2023 over allegations of corruption but was acquitted in a State Senate trial. His wife, a state senator, has filed for divorce, citing adultery.
Anthony Holm, a longtime Republican consultant who once worked for Mr. Paxton, said that for the better part of a year, Mr. Talarico had been the one with an advantage in fund-raising, and therefore in messaging.
But now that Mr. Paxton has the financial edge, Mr. Holm said, he can use the influx of cash to target the meaningful chunk of voters who are still undecided.
“As long as Paxton has the money,” Mr. Holm said, “he’ll be fine.”
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