The Trump administration unveiled new rules Monday rolling back the nation’s fuel economy standards, touting the move as a money-saving measure for American auto buyers struggling with affordability.
The regulations, first proposed in December, also further signal the end of federal support for nudging drivers to switch from gasoline to electric cars and trucks.
The rules still require fuel efficiency improvements but at a slower pace. Automakers now will need a car-and-truck fleetwide average of 34.9 mpg by the 2031 model year, instead of the stricter, projected 49.3 mpg under the Biden-era rule. Average fuel economy was 27.2 mpg in the 2024 model year, according to a government analysis.
The Trump administration has pitched these new rules as a way for people to save money — one potential solution to the affordability debate that has roiled the country in recent years amid high inflation and rising costs — though analysts have expressed skepticism about whether any savings would reach consumers.
The average new vehicle price in 2031 should be reduced by $1,289 due to the weaker fuel economy standards, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, which drafted the regulation.
But that’s only if those savings are passed on to consumers, NHTSA cautioned.
“Freedom means affordable cars” was the headline on the administration’s event Monday announcing the finalized regulations.
And Trump touted the new standard in a social media post Saturday, writing: “That means LOWER PRICES, saving families thousands on a new, beautiful, and safe car.”
Analysts were doubtful that car shoppers should expect $1,300 price cuts from the new regulations — and any savings would be hard to notice, with average new vehicle prices currently hovering around $50,000.
“You’re not going to see a vehicle that’s $1,300 less expensive,” said Stephanie Brinley, principal automotive analyst with Mobility Global. “That’s not quite how it works.”
Brinley said NHTSA’s assumptions about how automakers might save under the new regulations don’t necessarily translate into savings for consumers. Car companies will face less regulatory pressure to sell electric vehicles. But it’s possible consumers will still demand more EVs or hybrids — especially if gas prices remain elevated.
Automakers already are struggling under Trump’s tariffs, which increase costs, said Jessica Caldwell, head of insights at Edmunds. So any savings from weaker fuel economy standards would probably go to offset tariffs first, Caldwell said.
“I don’t see the direct savings being passed along,” she said. “It’s just not how vehicles are priced.”
The $1,300 cost savings come mainly through lower regulatory technology costs, according to NHTSA. It’s simply less expensive to comply with the watered-down fuel economy standards.
But the agency admits that in “some model years” the added fuel costs would outweigh the $1,300 drop in vehicle price.
NHTSA also noted that it projects the overall benefits to outweigh the costs.
Caldwell said she didn’t expect automakers to abandon EVs and focus just on gas-powered vehicles. Car companies know that the rules can flip with a new administration. And they need to plan years ahead for new models.
The larger problem for U.S. automakers is that the rest of the world is rapidly moving toward EVs, Caldwell said. American firms need to keep their foothold in global markets to remain competitive.
Still, Trump has been shifting the U.S. market away from EVs.
His tax and spending overhaul last year — known as the One Big Beautiful Bill — ended the $7,500 EV purchase credit program. The bill also eliminated financial penalties for automakers that failed to meet corporate average fuel economy standards, known as CAFE.
Now those standards are being relaxed.
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